Post fed historic high

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +27pts (0.9%) at 2954. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.9% The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers cooling into Friday's quad-opex.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened strongly higher, with the SPX breaking a new historic high of 2956, which naturally pleased the Trump...

Further, from last evening...

The US President sure does like to cite US equities as one of his key achievements.
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The opening gains from 2956 did erode though, pressured via Trump comments on Iran. The afternoon saw moderate chop, breaking a new historic high of 2958 in the closing hour, and settling on a broadly positive note.

Volatility broke a new cycle (cash-market) low of 13.91, before leaning upward to 16.03, and settling +2.9% at 14.75. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, with the market makers highly inclined to see price cool into the quad-opex.
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Bullard leading the charge

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2926. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, with soft target of the 2900/2890 zone.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in micro chop mode, and naturally stayed that way into the 2pm FOMC announcement.

The outlook from twelve fed officials merits highlighting...

The most notable (but not surprising) aspect of today's FOMC statement, was that Bullard was calling for a June rate cut. Lets be clear, Bullard, aka, the bane of the equity bears, aka... uber-dove, is going to replace Powell, the only issue is whether its before year end, or in 2020.

Equities managed to claw to sp'2931 in the closing hour, settling a little higher, notably... just 28pts (1.0%) shy of the May 1st historic high.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling -5.4% at 14.33. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, not least with it being a Thursday. Its possible, if not probable that Trump will tweet some frustration that Powell didn't cut rates.

ps... we only have another 42 days to the FOMC of July 31st, when rates can be expected to be cut by 25bps to 2.00/2.25%.

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Printing threats and trade hopes

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.0%) at 2917. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.2% and +1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a case of 'post fed depression'.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of threats and hopes. The day began early with the ECB's Draghi issuing overt threats to spool up the printers, a mere six months after they were halted. Trump wasn't happy with that...

Equities opened broadly higher, and with the gains a little shaky (opening 30/60min black candles)... this appeared...

... and that resulted in a secondary ramp, with legacy gap of sp'2913/32 being tagged. The afternoon saw moderate chop, leaning a touch weak into the close. Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -1.3% to 15.15.

Meanwhile, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley was making the mainstream cheerleaders a little bit twitchy...

Wilson... on the far right.

Wilson's call for a 10% drop within the relatively near term is a bold call.

The sp'2600s won't be easy, never mind anything in the 2500/400s. With just eight trading days left of June, the latter looks a stretch this July/August, unless we settle back under the monthly 10MA, currently at 2783.

Wednesday afternoon won't be boring. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the equity bears, and that should carry across into Thursday.

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Goodnight from London
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