Permabear Doomster

Friday, 24 May 2019

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes mostly ended the week on a slightly positive note, spx +4pts (0.1%) at 2826. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.8% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher. The gains to 2841 were shaky though, with the SPX cooling back to fractionally negative to 2820 in late morning. The afternoon saw another wave higher to 2833, before a touch of cooling into the long weekend. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melted lower, settling -6.3% at 15.85.
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I will continue to highlight anyone and anything I see as worthy. Whilst Josh Brown sure does annoy me at times, the following does merit viewing...

Indeed, across the long term, such exponential equity growth is the case. Or would you rather a nice US Govt' bond. Even better, how about a neg' yield one from Germany or Japan?

yours.. bullish compounding, and bearish statistical decay.
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Finally...

Last night SpaceX launched the first batch of 60 satellites that will form the Starlink global internet.

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Yours truly was naturally watching the live feed via Youtube at 4am. A look outside, and I saw an engine burst/flash from the second stage as it flew over London. Regardless of what you might think of Musk and Tesla, SpaceX continues to produce superb and inspirational work. Maximum bullish SpaceX to the Moon, Mars... and beyond.
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Another arrival to the land of geo-political chaos.

A welcome end to the week

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 23 May 2019

Typical Thursday

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -34pts (1.2%) at 2822. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and -2.0% respectively. Near term outlook favours the bulls into the long weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursdays do tend to favour the equity bears, and with the mainstream increasingly concerned about almost everything, the market opened broadly weak, and spiraled to very significant declines into the afternoon.

There are the concerns about trade of course. Even BREXIT is being highlighted again, as UK PM May looks set to resign soon. Then there is the grander issue of global econ-cooling. The US/Iran issue isn't really that new (I could go back to the 1950s), but the mainstream are certainly giving it some attention.

The afternoon saw further equity weakness, with a closing hour ramp from a new intraday low of 2805, to settle at 2822.

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX peaking to 18.05, and settling +14.6% at 16.92. The s/t cyclical setup will favour a moderate equity bounce. The fact we have a long three day holiday break will lean to subdued price action, and that will favour the bulls.
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Fly me... to the moon

Another fine summer's day

Wednesday, 22 May 2019

Where are the shorts now?

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2856. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers further moderate swings across the remainder of the week.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, saw an afternoon low of 2851, and settling just a little weak. Volatility saw a high of 15.44, but melted back lower, settling -1.3% at 14.75.

Where are the shorts now?

After a decade long climb from sp'666 to 2954, it really shouldn't be surprising that short interest is at levels last seen in 2006.

Much like when VIX is in the low teens, there is really only one direction this can go from here.

Yours, awaiting the end of QT, and rate cut'1.
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Arriving in the land of BREXIT chaos

A good example of a sun dog (there was a corresponding one, off to the left).

A fine summer's evening