Typical Thursday

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -34pts (1.2%) at 2822. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and -2.0% respectively. Near term outlook favours the bulls into the long weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursdays do tend to favour the equity bears, and with the mainstream increasingly concerned about almost everything, the market opened broadly weak, and spiraled to very significant declines into the afternoon.

There are the concerns about trade of course. Even BREXIT is being highlighted again, as UK PM May looks set to resign soon. Then there is the grander issue of global econ-cooling. The US/Iran issue isn't really that new (I could go back to the 1950s), but the mainstream are certainly giving it some attention.

The afternoon saw further equity weakness, with a closing hour ramp from a new intraday low of 2805, to settle at 2822.

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX peaking to 18.05, and settling +14.6% at 16.92. The s/t cyclical setup will favour a moderate equity bounce. The fact we have a long three day holiday break will lean to subdued price action, and that will favour the bulls.
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Fly me... to the moon

Another fine summer's day

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Goodnight from London
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Where are the shorts now?

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2856. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers further moderate swings across the remainder of the week.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, saw an afternoon low of 2851, and settling just a little weak. Volatility saw a high of 15.44, but melted back lower, settling -1.3% at 14.75.


Where are the shorts now?

After a decade long climb from sp'666 to 2954, it really shouldn't be surprising that short interest is at levels last seen in 2006.

Much like when VIX is in the low teens, there is really only one direction this can go from here. 




Yours, awaiting the end of QT, and rate cut'1.
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Arriving in the land of BREXIT chaos

 A good example of a sun dog (there was a corresponding one, off to the left).

A fine summer's evening

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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I don't envy the guy

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.8%) at 2864. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +1.3% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built broad gains into the mid afternoon. Unlike recent days, the late afternoon didn't see any cooling of note.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling -8.3% at 14.95. The s/t cyclical outlook offers a mixed Wednesday, a bearish Thursday, and a subdued Friday, the latter of which will favour the bulls ahead of the three day break.
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I don't envy the guy

Last evening, Powell delivered a keynote speech "Mapping the Financial Frontier: What does the next decade hold?".

The next decade? How about even predicting the next GDP print?

Powell is in a monetary box, but then... so was Yellen and the Bernanke. QT is set to conclude in September, and rate cut'1 can be expected as early as the FOMC of Oct'30th.

Trump will no doubt put the blame for eventual economic weakness with an associated equity market drop on Print Central. Many of you might think I'd smile at that. No, and I don't envy Powell. Life in Powell land is going to become more pressured with each passing month. No doubt Bullard - aka, the Bane of the equity bears, is on standby to take over.


The BREXIT debacle continues... 

As expected, the UK Govt' is moving towards some kind of parliamentary deal between the main parties, and one which will offer a second referendum/confirmatory vote for such a deal.

Let me be clear, the UK populace would arguably vote 53/47 AGAINST any such deal, and thus vote to remain within the EU.

Yours... correctly called the original BREXIT vote, the Trump victory, and sure as hell knows which way the UK will vote in any subsequent BREXIT related vote.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London... still part of the EU.
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If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
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