US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2870 (intra low 2836). Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.3% respectively.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Wednesday evening saw Trump hold another rally...
... talk of 'they broke the deal' gave the algo-bots yet another excuse to whack futures lower. Equities opened broadly weak, and quickly took out the Tuesday low of 2862. Late morning saw a low of 2836, just 2pts shy of fully filling legacy gap of 2848/34. The lunchtime hour saw a powerful swing upward on more Trump trade chatter, with the afternoon seeing the SPX coming close to turning positive.
Volatility broke a high of 23.38, the highest print since Jan'4th, back when Print Central was in the early phase of threatening to end QT. VIX settled -1.5% at 19.10. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for early Friday... when UBER are set to list.
US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -4pts (0.2%) at 2879. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers another swing lower, before possible trade news on Friday.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
The day began with pre-market trade chatter from the Trump...
... that helped give futures a kick upward, with US equities opening in moderate chop mode, and that was how it remained for the day.
Volatility remained relative elevated, seeing a high of 21.71, but settling +0.4% at 19.40.
Thursday will inherently favour the equity bears, as does the s/t cyclical setup. There is support with the 50dma at 2858, and a legacy gap of 2848/34. Its entirely possible we see down wave to the latter by late Thurs/early Friday, but still hyper surging on 'positive trade news' into the Friday close. For the record, I do expect some kind of US/China trade agreement, not that it matters to the US/global economy. There are a great many grander issues than tariffs.
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US equity indexes closed powerfully lower on renewed trade concerns, sp -48pts (1.6%) at 2884. Dow -1.8%. Nasdaq comp' -2.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.1% and -2.0% respectively.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
With an official announcement that raised tariffs on China are due to be implemented this Friday, the algo-bots marked prices broadly lower at the open. There were a few rally attempts, but each failed, with the SPX breaking a closing hour low of 2862. The final minutes saw a hyper spike to settle -48pts (1.6%) to 2884.
Volatility soared, spiking to 21.84 - the highest since Jan' 23rd, and settling +25.1% to 19.32. Whilst the s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for early Wednesday, a test of the 50dma and/or legacy gap of 2848/34 is probable, before renewed opportunity of secure upside.
Gundlach truth bombs
Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline Capital was wheeled out on CNBC for the lunchtime show, and what he said sure won't sit well with what the mainstream cheerleaders choose to believe...
Wapner and the Gundlach
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"Which is it man, is the economy roaring, or do we need hyper-stimulus?'
- Gundlach, regarding recent VP Pence comments on the 'roaring
economy', but whom is mirroring Trump's request for a 100bps cut in rates.
Gundlach noted that if the US debt hadn't grown by 6% last year, GDP would have been negative. This is very much the issue that Denniger has been highlighting this very day...
Both of the above posts are highly recommended.
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Gundlach made special mention of the NYSE composite index...
NYSE comp', daily, 18mth
Gundlach noted the historic high from Jan'2018, then a lower high in Oct'2018, and despite the recent 'Powell pivot' hyper ramp from late Dec'2018, the NYSE comp' still hasn't cleared the Oct'2018 high.
I will add that whilst the recent SPX and Nasdaq comp' historic highs are not to be dismissed lightly, Gundlach's point about the master index (as I like to call it) is absolutely valid.
I am pretty surprised CNBC have the guy on, but its arguably a case of 'token market/econ bear', to try to give the appearance of balance. I would expect Peter Schiff to have something to say about Gundlach. Expect a podcast to appear on Youtube within a day or two.
So... we have a US economy that is struggling much like the EU, but which is being propped up by massive amounts of debt, both within central/local govt', corporate, and consumer level. This sure ain't going to end well.
The only issue is whether Print Central lets the market crash and burn, before 'hyper-stimulus', or just goes straight to hyper stimulus mode within 6-9 months. Increasingly, it looks like we're set for the latter.
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