A path of lies or just delusion?

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -22pts (0.8%) at 2923. Nasdaq comp' and Dow both settled -0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers early Thursday weakness.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the new month with a new historic high for the SPX of sp'2954. On any basis, that already makes May a month for the equity bulls. Once Powell was out of the way, the market saw a pretty ugly closing hour. Volatility was subdued until a late afternoon spike, settling +12.8% to 14.80.
 

A path of lies or just delusion?

Powell's belief that the US economy continues on a 'healthy path' is either an outright lie or just a delusion.

For the record, I do actually believe in Powell's sincerity. He is an academic, tasked with achieving the impossible, and under increasing political pressure from Trump. In many ways... I pity the guy. Financial historians of the late 21st century won't look kindly on anyone from the institution that is Print Central.  


Meanwhile... a notable highlight from yesterday...

So, now we have Trump calling for a cut in rates of 100bps, along with renewed QE. Yet, the US President (along with his many spokespeople, not least the Kudlow) are also touting the US economy as in boom mode. Whether you see it as a classic case of denial, twisted logic, or just outright lies, neither Trump or anyone else, can have it both ways.

Whilst I see US econ-data and earnings as continuing to come in broadly fine, there is a distinct weakening of the trend since Q4 2018.

The ultimate issue is whether Print Central, or rather the US Govt', will tolerate a massive drop in equities, before spinning up the printers (baseline case, $2.5/3.0trn). In any case, we are another day closer to the end of QT, a rate cut, and QE4.


There was no recovery

Ticker guy, aka.. Denniger is someone I have a love/hate attitude toward. He has some wildly crazy views on some matters, but the following post merits serious consideration...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=235706

The data and commentary IS correct. I would hope at least most of you recognise that much.
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The sun sets on April

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2945. Nasdaq comp' -0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of moderate swings in equity land, with the morning seeing a low of sp'2924, but then a rather typical latter day recovery to settle broadly flat. Volatility did pick up, with the VIX printing 14.05, but then melting back lower to settle +0.1% at 13.12.


SPX, monthly

The sp'500 climbed for a fourth consecutive month, +111pts (3.9%) to 2945, having broken a new historic high of 2948. On any basis, it was a very bullish month. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, as price momentum is about to turn net positive for the first time since Oct'2018. The outlook for May has to be bullish.
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AMD and AAPL bulls set to ascend in early May

The sun sets on April

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The market rests for no man

US equity indexes mostly closed a little higher, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2943. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and +0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a subdued, but bullish day for the US equity market, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' breaking new (if marginal) historic highs. The underlying m/t upward trend continues, as the bears are effectively powerless.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX churning within the 13/12s. Whilst the VIX can't go much lower, it can stay low for weeks, even months at a time.
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The market rests for no man

I think a fair few million were only half awake for today (yours truly included), primarily due to last evening's episode of Game of Thrones. With just three episodes left, its been one hell of a show, and perhaps more than anything, I'm really curious as to what the final shot/scene of the series will be. I'd like it to be a series of jumps across the map.

A man would be proud of a girl

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Arya sure has progressed across the last eight seasons.

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As green as the US equity indexes

Summer is near

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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