Tuesday, 16 April 2019

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed on a fractionally positive note, sp +1.5pts at 2907. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and +0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

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US equities opened moderately higher, partly inspired by strength in Asian and European markets.  From a new multi-month high of sp'2916, there was some cooling to fill the opening gap in mid afternoon, with further chop into the close.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX printing 11.99 (normal market hours), and settling -1.1% at 12.18. The s/t cyclical setup will (at least marginally) favour the bears for the remaining two trading days of the week.

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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 15 April 2019

Further pressure on Print Central

US equity indexes settled on a weak note, sp -1.8pts (0.1%) at 2905. Nasdaq comp' and Dow both cooled by -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further cooling.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a pretty subdued day to begin Easter-holiday week, with moderate cooling in late morning, and a minor latter day recovery, before leaning a little weak into the close. Volatility clawed into the low 13s, before cooling back to settle +2.6 at 12.32.


Further pressure on Print Central

The following tweet appeared Sunday morning (10.04am EDT), and just adds further pressure on Print Central to loosen monetary policy... 


QT is set to end this September, and a subsequent series of rate cuts can then be expected. The only real unknown is what level will the SPX will be trading at when the printers are spun back up. Crazy times.
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The monster of the skies

Summer warmth... soon

Twilight moon, with Full moon this 'Good Friday'
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 13 April 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.7% (Transports), +0.6% (Nadsaq comp'), +0.5% (SPX), +0.3% (NYSE comp'), +0.1% (R2K), to -0.05% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The 13th weekly gain of 16, breaking a new multi-month high of 2910, settling +14pts (0.5%) to 2907, a mere 33pts (1.1%) from the Sept'2018 high of 2940. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle which continues to tick upward, as price momentum strongly favours the bulls.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq gained 45pts (0.6%) to 7984.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, and despite a significant Friday gain of 269pts, still saw a net weekly decline of -12pts (0.05%) to 26412.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly gain of 41pts (0.3%) to 12969. Equity bulls should be seeking a break above the Sept'2018 high of 13261.


R2K


The second market leader gained 2pts (0.1%) to 1584. Note recent price structure of a bull flag which will be fully confirmed >1602.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the leader this week, settling +177pts (1.7%) to 10912. Next target is the Dec' high of 11044.
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Summary

Five of the six main US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Transports lead the way with significant gains, whilst the Dow was the laggard, settling fractionally lower.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' is currently leading the way, +20.3%, with the Transports +19.0%. The R2K is +17.5%, the SPX +16.0%, with the NYSE comp' +14.0%. The Dow is lagging, but still net higher by a respectable 13.2%.
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Looking ahead 

It will be a short four day trading week, but earnings will start to pour in...

M - C, GS, SCHW
T - BAC, UNH, NFLX, IBM, UAL,
W - MS, KMI, LVS, AA
T - SLB, AXP,



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M - Empire state manu'
T - Indust' prod', housing market index
W - Intl' trade, Wholesale trade, Fed Beige book (2pm)
T - Retail sales,Weekly jobs, phil' fed, bus' invent', leading indi'
F - CLOSED

*Fed official Evans will be due on CNBC Squawk box on Mon'. Bullard will be due on Wed'.

**As Friday is CLOSED for 'Good Friday', price action on Thurs'18th can be expected to be choppy, if not also subdued, as many will be leaving early.
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Have a good weekend
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Twilight moon.
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.