Latter day weakness

US equity indexes closed on a rather weak note, sp -0.4pts at 2832. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -0.6% respectively.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day for the bulls, as despite latter day weakness, the SPX broke a new multi-month high of 2852, the highest print since Oct'10th. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX churning in the 13/12s.

Meanwhile... Trump had a press conf' with Brazilian President Bolsonaro.

I managed to stomach three minutes before having to hit the mute button.

Regarding socialism, whether you are supportive of it or not, any kind of local/central govt' is by definition 'socialism'. Do I have to cite the US welfare system, education, roads, or even the armed services? Those are inherently all socialist structures. Bizarrely, neither Trump... nor many others, can accept that truth.

Ohh, and as for the FOMC on Wednesday. I'll merely note that an end date for QT might well be announced. If not... then it will be even more probable May 1st or June 19th. The conclusion of QT will be the pre-cursor to a rate cut, which is arguably the ultimate sell signal - as it was in Sept'2007.
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Searching for a ray of light

An eerie glimpse of the nearly full moon

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New cycle high

US equity indexes began the week on a positive note, sp +10pts (0.4%) at 2832. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a few moderate swings ahead of the FOMC announcement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, with the SPX breaking a new cycle high of 2835, with a late morning cooling wave to 2821. The afternoon saw renewed upside, but holding under the high. S/t price structure is a H/S, offering 2805, then 2820, with the 2770s by Thurs'/Friday.

Volatility remained subdued, settling +1.7% at 13.10. A spike to the 15/16s would arguably sync with the sp'2770s.


Bonus chart: China, monthly

With nine trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' is higher for a third month, currently +5.3% at 3096. Next resistance is not until the 3400s. That would indirectly bode bullish for the US market into late spring/early summer.
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One thing is for sure... that is not a 737MAX

Spring is almost here

Full moon is this Wednesday

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.9% (SPX), +2.4% (NYSE comp'), +2.1% (R2K), +1.9% (Trans), to 1.6% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The SPX climbed for the 10th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 2830, settling +79pts (2.9%) to 2822. Note the upper weekly bollinger at 2894, and that will offer resistance in the low 2900s into early April.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' climbed for the 11th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 7714, settling +280pts (3.8%) at 7688.


Dow

The mighty Dow climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +398pts (1.6%) to 25848.


NYSE comp'

The NYSE comp' climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +300pts (2.4%) to 12715.


R2K

The R2K climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +31pts (2.1%) to 1553.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +193pts (1.9%) to 10310.
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Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes saw very significant net weekly gains.

The Nasdaq comp' and SPX lead the way upward, with the Transports and Dow lagging.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq comp' is leading the way for the first time this year, currently +15.9%. The R2K +15.2%, the SPX +12.6%, with the Transports +12.4%. The NYSE comp' is +11.8%, with the Dow lagging at +10.8%.
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Looking ahead

Earnings; OSTK, TLRY (Mon'), FDX (Tues'), MU (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), TIF, DB (Fri')

M - Housing market index
T - Factory orders
W - EIA Pet' report

*FOMC: 2pm. Whilst rates will be held at 2.25-2.50%, its very possible an end date for QT will be announced. There will be a press conf' at 2.30pm, and that will last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators,
F - Existing home sales, wholesale trade.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.