Permabear Doomster

Friday, 15 March 2019

Quad-opex strength

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +14pts (0.5%) at 2822. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, breaking a new multi-month cycle high in the early afternoon of 2830. This was just 110pts (3.9%) from the Sept' historic high, and a monstrous 484pts (20.6%) above the Dec' low. The late afternoon saw a little cooling

Volatility was in melt mode, with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 12.50, settling -4.6% at 12.88.
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No sunshine for the bears.

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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 14 March 2019

Tedious minor chop

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2808. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers quad-opex chop into the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of tedious minor chop in equity land, with an SPX trading range just 11.54pts wide. Volatility was itself subdued, settling fractionally higher in the mid 13s.

Friday is quad-opex, and that will inherently lean to broad chop. On balance, I'd look for the market makers to try to work their magic, and pin the market around the sp'2800 threshold.

Meanwhile...

It was just another day in the UK, with a series of votes on BREXIT related matters. The thing is... none of the votes have ANY legal implications. If the UK govt' wishes to just ignore them, and exit the EU with no deal, they are legally allowed to just let it happen.

As things are, an attempt to delay BREXIT seems probable, but it is a situation of 100% chaos. Many now believe PM May will resign, once BREXIT (with some kind of deal/agreement) occurs. The next general election (whenever that might be), will doubtless see Corbyn elected. That in itself will be 'interesting', to put it mildly.
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Wednesday, 13 March 2019

Midweek gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +19pts (0.7%) at 2810. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook leans to the bears for Thursday.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and battled upward into the afternoon. The SPX broke above the March 4th high of 2817, with an intra high of 2821. There was some distinct cooling in the late afternoon. Volatility was in melt mode for a fourth day, with the VIX settling in the mid 13s. The s/t cyclical setup for Thursday will lean to the equity bears.

Meanwhile...

... the BREXIT chaos continued, with a series of shocking votes in the evening. One vote saw the house vote (312/308) against leaving the EU without a deal. However, that is not legally binding, and as things are, the UK is set to leave the EU March 29th, whether parliament can agree on a deal or not.

My guess is that we will see an attempted extension to article 50, effectively delaying BREXIT, if only by two months. However, any such extension has to be agreed by all 27 member states of the EU. As some have noted, the entire situation ranks as an outright constitutional crisis.
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