Permabear Doomster

Friday, 22 February 2019

Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a broadly positive note, sp +17pts (0.6%) at 2792. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.9% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, helped via Asian and European market strength. The SPX broke a new cycle high of 2794, which was fully confirmed/supported via a new cycle low in the VIX of 13.67. The afternoon saw a little cooling, but then Trump made an appearance with the Chinese VP... resulting in a mini ramp.

As things are, the March 1st scheduled hike in tariffs is almost certainly going to be delayed.
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Climbing into the weekend

A few minutes of serenity... whilst BREXIT is another day closer.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 21 February 2019

Typically bearish Thursday

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 2774. Dow and Nasdaq comp' both settled -0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers weak chop into the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened weak to 2772, and saw a little recovery into early afternoon. There was a secondary wave lower into the closing hour to 2764, but then a late day mini ramp (for no good reason). Volatility picked up a little, with VIX printing 15.17, and settling +3.1% at 14.46.

IPOs on the menu

Lyft is set to IPO late March, notably ahead of UBER. If equities take another swing lower, even as small as just 5%, the mainstream are going to be twitching again, and some of the IPOs will be delayed for reasons of 'adverse market conditions'.
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Tuesday, 19 February 2019

Supermoon Tuesday

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +4pts (0.1%) at 2779. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -0.2% at 14.88. Wed/Thurs' should lean to the equity bears.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a subdued start to the week, with the morning consisting entirely of minor chop. The afternoon did see some distinct algo-bot upward melt, with the spx breaking a new cycle high of 2787.

Volatility opened to 16.15, but immediately started to cool. The afternoon saw the VIX break a new multi-month low in the mid 14s... confirming the equity strength.

Another ten year anniversary

Its been a full decade since Rick Santelli went on his tea party rant...

Perhaps the most surprising thing since that time is that NBC/CNBC haven't kicked Santelli off the network. I can only assume they want at least one 'token opposition' to play against.

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Another day closer to spring

The supermoon