Friday, 4 January 2019

The wild swings continue

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +84pts (3.4%) at 2531. Nasdaq comp' +4.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +3.9% and +3.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2620/30s, before another rollover, with prime target of the 2250/40s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, helped by unquestionably good jobs data. The Fed's Mester further helped inspire mainstream sentiment, when she overtly threatened to suspend the QT program if the US economy weakens.


The market battled upward, and accelerated on remarks from Powell...


The afternoon saw a break back above the old Feb' low/floor of 2532. That has opened the door to a few more days of upside, with the low 2600s viable next week, before the next big rollover.

Volatility was naturally dented right from the open, with the VIX settling in the mid 21s. Its notable that yesterday's black-fail candle was a subtle hint that Friday would indeed favour the equity bulls. 


The wild swings continue

Whilst Thursday saw the mainstream in semi-terror mode, Friday has seen the cheerleaders flip back to an 'everything is fine again' mindset. A rare few have noted (not least Josh Brown), that since early October we're simply seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows. Today's powerful gains don't change that pattern. There is zero reason not to treat bounces as such, although obviously... such bounces are scary strong, with the ongoing swings enough to make anyone dizzy.
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Looking upward into next week

The first London sunset of 2019
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 3 January 2019

AAPL upsets the cart

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -62pts (2.5%) at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.5% and -1.8% respectively. VIX settled +9.6% to 25.45. Natural target remains the sp'2250/40s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and spiraled to 2447. There was a significant rally to 2488, but then the sellers reappeared... breaking a new low in the closing hour of 2443.

Volatility saw a morning high of 26.60, but despite equities breaking a new low into the close, the VIX did not confirm. It should be a mild concern to the very s/t equity bears. Note today's settling black-fail candle, which does lean to cooler volatility... if only for early Friday.


AAPL upsets the cart

We've seen a fair number of companies guide lower since early Q4. Yesterday evening's lowered guidance by the tech behemoth of Apple was some grade 'A' market drama...

AAPL, monthly


Seriously, is anyone really surprised? Apple stock has been cooling for FIVE months. Note the bearish macd (green bar histogram) cross seen in December. Natural target would be the 2015 (adjusted) high of $125s, with legacy gap zone of 123/117.




It was interesting to see Carter Worth note the 2015 high yesterday, and with Cramer touting $120 this morning. I would consider the AAPL guidance change as a very powerful sign that sp'2940 has been cemented as a key l/t top.

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Wednesday, 2 January 2019

Just a little glitch

US equity indexes closed on the positive side, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2510. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers Thursday chop, but with viable upside to challenge the 50dma in the sp'2600s next week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a significantly bearish note, although by late morning, most indexes had managed to turn fractionally negative.

Volatility saw a minor spike in early morning, but then resumed melt mode, settling in the low 23s. Support within the 21/20 zone.


Just a little glitch

In the early afternoon, it was reported that Trump deemed the December equity downside as '... we had a little glitch in the stock market last month...". So, the sp'2300s were just a little glitch huh? The obvious question is what will the US President call the sp'2200s?


Even to yours truly, the ongoing equity chatter from the US President is becoming rather tedious, and appears increasingly desperate. It is clear that Trump can't cope with any degree of downside, and is actively trying to cheer-lead the market back upward.



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Clearly, a US/China trade deal would really help, but other than sporadic Trump tweets, there is zero sign of any real progress towards such a deal. Perhaps we'll see some kind of limited deal in Feb/March? By then though... those sp'2200s appear likely to have already occurred.

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Goodnight from London
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