Ending November positive

US equity indexes settled the week/month on a positive note, sp +22pts (0.8%) at 2760. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -3.8% to 18.07.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and then made a push upward into/across the afternoon. The closing hour saw some further swings, seeing a micro spike in the final minutes. With equity strength, volatility melted lower, settling in the low 18s.
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sp'monthly

The spx saw a net monthly gain of 48pts (1.8%). That cancels out the October bearish settlement, and the s/t outlook has to flip to bullish. Even if the Oct' low of 2603 is eventually broken under in Dec' or January, it can no longer be expected to be anything sustained. Today's Chicago PMI of 66.4 was a reminder that the US train is still on the tracks.
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Hard landing into end month?

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -6pts (0.2%) at 2737. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +1.6% at 18.79. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/monthly settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened weak, with a late morning low of 2722, and then clawed back upward, even turning net positive in late afternoon. The closing hour saw a moderate cooling wave. Volatility saw a morning high of 20.48, but then melted back lower, settling in the upper 18s.


Hard landing into end month?

Tomorrow is the monthly settlement of course, and it has to be asked if we might end on a very bearish note. The G20 'leaders summit' will begin, and will threaten sporadic news headlines across the day.

Virgin Atlantic, descending into LHR

The equity bears should be content with any settlement under the monthly 10MA, currently at 2750.  Considering the s/t cyclical setup, that does still look probable, and will give extra credence to the original notion of the October bearish close. 
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The first sunshine in NINE days

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Fed induced upside

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +61pts (2.3%) at 2743. Nasdaq comp' +2.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +2.5%. VIX settled -2.8% at 18.49. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/end month settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened moderately higher on hopes of soothing talk from Powell. The gains were shaky though, with the spx' coming close to breakeven, before swinging back upward. The Powell speech was seen as Goldilocks, with equities soaring into early afternoon.

The usual fedspeak from the CEO of print central

Despite strong equity gains, volatility relatively held up, with the VIX settling in the mid 18s. The VIX is often a subtle tell, and equity bulls should be concerned that the VIX did NOT confirm today's equity strength. S/t outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/end month.


*Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just two trading days left of the month, the DAX is lower for a 4th consecutive month, currently -1.3% at 11298. There is near zero sign of a floor/turn. The German market decisively broke the l/t trend in October, and looks vulnerable all the way to 8k.
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