US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 2632. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled u/c. Near term outlook is uncertain, ahead of a weekend of BREXIT related discussions/votes. November remains on track to settle outright bearish.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
The week ended on a slightly bearish note, as the equity bulls remained largely absent. Volatility climbed for the 3rd day of 4, with the VIX settling the week above the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook is uncertain, due to weekend issues surrounding BREXIT.
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Bonus chart: spx, monthly
With five trading days left of the month, the spx is -79pts (2.9%) at 2632. Note the key 10MA at 2740, some 108pts higher. Its going to be very difficult for the bulls to avoid a second consecutive bearish monthly settlement.
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US equity indexes settled into Thanksgiving on a positive note, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2649. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.3% respectively. VIX settled -7.5% at 20.80. Near term outlook offers further weakness, with November on track to settle outright bearish.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities caught a bounce into the Thanksgiving break, with the sp' seeing a morning high of 2670. There was afternoon cooling though, especially into the close.
Volatility was naturally in melt mode, but settling above the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook offers a weak equity open for the Friday half session, but the market should have opportunity to lean back upward into next week.
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Bonus charts...
Germany, monthly
The DAX is currently -1.8% at 11224. The m/t trend is bearish. Soft psy' 10K, then 8k.
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Japan, monthly
Currently net lower by -1.9% at 21507. Things turn decisively m/t bearish under the Oct' low of 20971.
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US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -48pts (1.8%) at 2641. Nasdaq comp' -1.7%. Dow -2.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.0% and -1.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but the November settlement is on track to remain under broken mid/long term supports.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened very significantly lower, and saw a morning reversal from 2632... just 29pts above the key Oct' low. The afternoon wasn't pretty though, with a new intraday low in the closing hour of 2631, with a 10pt swing to settle at 2641.
Volatility climbed for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 22s.
Meanwhile...
I'm sure the US President would indeed like lower rates, and if equities remain broadly weak into 2019, we might see the fed panic, and suspend QT and/or cutting rates. THAT... would make for the ultimate sell signal.
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Nothing lasts forever...
As the song goes, nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain. October saw bearish monthly closes (at least under my criteria) in most of the US equity indexes. November hasn't been pretty, and with just 6.5 trading days left of the month, its not looking good for the bulls, with the spx on track to settle under the key monthly 10MA.
sp'weekly5 - wave count
I continue to endeavour to (usually) refrain from counting any of what is semi-chaos price action. However, I'll highlight the above legacy chart. If its right... then we have a l/t top. That notion would get dropped on any monthly close back above the monthly 10MA - currently at 2741.
I know I'm not the only out there with a similar wave count. Any thoughts?
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