Into the Thanksgiving break

US equity indexes settled into Thanksgiving on a positive note, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2649. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.3% respectively. VIX settled -7.5% at 20.80. Near term outlook offers further weakness, with November on track to settle outright bearish.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities caught a bounce into the Thanksgiving break, with the sp' seeing a morning high of 2670. There was afternoon cooling though, especially into the close.

Volatility was naturally in melt mode, but settling above the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook offers a weak equity open for the Friday half session, but the market should have opportunity to lean back upward into next week.    
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Bonus charts...

Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently -1.8% at 11224. The m/t trend is bearish. Soft psy' 10K, then 8k.
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Japan, monthly

Currently net lower by -1.9% at 21507. Things turn decisively m/t bearish under the Oct' low of 20971.
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One month until the winter solstice

Yet another group successfully escape the UK

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

To my US readers.... happy Thanksgiving!

Goodnight from London
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Nothing lasts forever

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -48pts (1.8%) at 2641. Nasdaq comp' -1.7%. Dow -2.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.0% and -1.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but the November settlement is on track to remain under broken mid/long term supports.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, and saw a morning reversal from 2632... just 29pts above the key Oct' low. The afternoon wasn't pretty though, with a new intraday low in the closing hour of 2631, with a 10pt swing to settle at 2641.

Volatility climbed for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 22s.

Meanwhile...

I'm sure the US President would indeed like lower rates, and if equities remain broadly weak into 2019, we might see the fed panic, and suspend QT and/or cutting rates. THAT... would make for the ultimate sell signal.
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Nothing lasts forever...

As the song goes, nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain. October saw bearish monthly closes (at least under my criteria) in most of the US equity indexes. November hasn't been pretty, and with just 6.5 trading days left of the month, its not looking good for the bulls, with the spx on track to settle under the key monthly 10MA.

sp'weekly5 - wave count

I continue to endeavour to (usually) refrain from counting any of what is semi-chaos price action. However, I'll highlight the above legacy chart. If its right... then we have a l/t top. That notion would get dropped on any monthly close back above the monthly 10MA - currently at 2741.

I know I'm not the only out there with a similar wave count. Any thoughts?
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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I like to sleep soundly

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -45pts (1.6%) at 2690. Nasdaq comp' -3.0% at 7028. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -2.0% respectively. VIX settled +10.8% at 20.10. Near term outlook offers choppy upside into the Thanksgiving break, and then renewed weakness into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and steadily cooled into the mid afternoon, seeing a low of 2681. There was a vain attempt at a latter day recovery, but the closing hour sure wasn't pretty.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling back above the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook will favour the equity bulls into the Wed'/Thanksgiving break.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With nine trading days left of the month, the DAX is lower for the sixth month of seven, currently -1.8% at 11244. Soft psy' support at 10k, and then the old double top (now core support) of around 8k. If you believe the DAX is going to 8k, you can have some confidence about which direction the rest of the EU markets will trade into 2019, and to some degree... the US market.


I like to sleep soundly

Last week saw some powerful upside in Natural Gas (NG) to $4.93, although it wasn't entirely surprising, as NG had broken and settled above core resistance of the $3.20s in mid October.

The past few days have seen a fair amount of coverage given to optionsellers.com, whose site has effectively 'gone dark'....

From what I gather, the company was leveraged short NG, via naked put writing. Effectively... losses could have been infinite.

Last week saw the fund not only lose ALL of its funds, but most (or all?) clients now have negative balances. Some will no doubt be able to throw more money to at least zero-balance their accounts, but not all.

If I've instilled anything of use to you across the past few years, it is hopefully the notion that if you want to sleep soundly at night, then no margin/leverage!

Across the many years, I've had some superb, and also horrific trades, but never have I had a sleepless night, worried about seeing my account balance turn negative. I simply never trade on margin, and I sure as hell sleep better for it.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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