Opex chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 2736. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers choppy upside ahead of the Thanksgiving break, but then a very bearish wave into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, but there wasn't any real selling behind it, and indexes quickly reversed. Trump trade comments directly saw the market spike higher in the 12pm hour, but those gains soon faded. The afternoon saw further chop... carrying into the weekend.

Volatility saw an opening high in the low 21s, and then resumed melt mode, settling in the low 18s.
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Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is currently net lower for a second month, -1.1% at 21680, sitting on l/t rising trend. A Nov' close <20900s would be decisive, and offer soft support of around 19000. Note price momentum, which is increasingly negative.
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Short term floor

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.1%) at 2730. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.4% respectively. VIX settled -6.0% at 19.98. Near term outlook offers choppy upside into opex, and across Thanksgiving/holiday week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and saw an opening reversal to 2696, only to then spiral lower to 2670.  Late morning saw a reversal, with the spx turning fractionally higher. The afternoon saw a decisive push upward, breaking s/t declining trend... and giving clarity that 2670 is a s/t floor. The late afternoon did remain very choppy, settling at 2730. 

Volatility saw a mixed day, tagging the minor gap in the 22/23s, but with equities swinging upward, settling net lower in the upper 19s. On balance, today saw a s/t equity low, and the bulls should be able to control things into and across next week. The issue is how the month will settle.
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The ongoing BREXIT debacle

Another 500 or so, make a successful escape from the UK

To yours truly, it was a mess from the start. The political establishment - including May (conservative/republican) wanted the UK to remain. Then the vote saw a fractional majority of the UK vote to leave.

Democracy in the modern era, being what is it, the 'mob rule' of 51%, won, as it was a case of 'to hell with what the other 49% want'.

Today saw May battling to hold onto her role as UK Prime Minister. Let us not forget, she personally was responsible for calling a snap election in summer 2017, one of the worse political decisions ever seen in the western world. Her parliamentary majority was lost, and she had to form a coalition to stay in power.  

May's BREXIT agreement/plan with the EU is supported by barely a fifth, even those who do want to leave the EU.

The world capital markets aren't buying her political spiel, with the GBP currently 1.27s to the King of FIAT land. I still expect eventual parity, and frankly... I have no reason to complain. Yours truly didn't choose to get paid in USD for no good reason.
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Another failed rally

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2701. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.8% respectively. VIX settled +6.1% to 21.25. Near term outlook offers a 'problematic Thursday', not least if the sp'2680s fail to hold.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the rally failed even earlier than Tuesday, with the spx turning negative around 10.50am. From there, it sure wasn't pretty, with further 'spooky news' during the 12pm hour, that May had cancelled a BREXIT related press conf'. The spx saw a low of 2685, just 1pt above the golden fib' retrace, and 3pts shy of fully filling the price gap. The closing hour saw a failed micro rally, ending on a pretty bearish note.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling higher for the 4th day of 5. S/t outlook offers the 25/28s


A note on redemption day

There is plenty of chatter, not least from the lunatics on Zerohedge, that due to the Oct' equity drop, hedge funds might see a very large amount of redemptions. Thursday is a key day for this matter, and it does appear a valid concern. The equity bulls should be at least somewhat concerned that the market might fail to hold the sp'2680s, and just spiral lower to the Oct' low of 2603.
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Another day closer to winter solstice

Full moon coming... Nov'23rd

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