Permabear Doomster

Wednesday, 3 October 2018

The Dow is so fetch

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2925. Nasdaq comp' +0.3% at 8025. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +0.9% respectively. Near term outlook threatens early Thursday weakness, but the market is clearly m/t super strong.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the Dow breaking a new historic high of 26951. The sp' once again found resistance at the 2937s, and saw yet another afternoon cooling wave. Thursday might open a little weak, but the 2900 threshold looks comfortably secure into the weekend... if not the month.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting into the 11s.
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notable stock: SHLD

Sears Holdings broke a new historic low today of just 75 cents. Mr Market is arguably suggestive that this company will shut it doors soon... probably just after Christmas.
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Today was October 3rd, and whilst it was a Wednesday, yours truly most certainly did not wear anything pink...

The Dow IS fetch though. Ohh, and if you don't like Mean Girls, you're at the wrong site.
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A fine autumnal day

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 2 October 2018

Dow strength

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp -1pt at 2923. Dow +0.4% at 26773. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled +0.4% at 12.05. Near term outlook threatens early Wednesday weakness, but nothing under sp'2900.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another day of mostly minor chop, with the sp' opening a little weak, seeing a low of 2919, and then swinging upward to 2931. There was cyclical rollover in the afternoon, with the market leaning fractionally weak. That might carry across into Wednesday, but the bears can't expect anything of significance.

Volatility remained very subdued, with the VIX churning within the 12/11s.

Dow strength - monthly'2, fibs'

The Dow broke a new historic high today of 26824. Having cleared >26702 in September, the next key Fibonacci extension/extrapolation from the 2009 low is 34430. Something to reflect upon!
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Just another autumnal evening

Monday, 1 October 2018

Q4 starts positive

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +10pts (0.3%) at 2924. Dow +0.7% at 26652. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers cooling to 2911/05, and then new historic highs ahead of earnings season.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

October and Q4 began on a positive note, helped by news of US/Canada trade agreement, and a secondary announcement of NAFTA being terminated and replaced with USMCA.

Trump with provisional trade agreements

Of course, the bigger issue is whether the Trump administration can come to an agreement with China. I believe it can.. and I'd look for something to be announced next month, after the midterms (Nov'6th) are out of the way.

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