Thursday rebound

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2914. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -3.7% at 12.41. Near term outlook offers early Friday cooling to sp'2911/05, before (bullish) window dressing into end month/QE.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

After the post rate hike swing lower, US equities opened a little higher, and built broad gains into the afternoon. There was some distinct cooling from an intra high of 2927, with the sp' seeing a net gain of 0.3%. Volatility saw an early high of 12.62 (13.00 pre-market), and then melted lower into the afternoon, settling in the mid 12s.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just one trading day left of the month, the DAX is currently +0.6% at 12435, and that is an impressive recovery from an intra month low of 11865. I recognise most of you have ZERO interest in other world markets, but the DAX is a key market, and has indirect implications for other EU markets and the US.
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A sky of contrails and distrails

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Rate hike number eight

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 2905. Nasdaq comp' -0.2% at 7990. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers early Thursday weakness, but leaning upward into end month/Q3.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps to a new target range of 2.00-2.25%. The sp' saw a minor spike upward, only to swing lower, filling the downside gap to 2907. I could almost understand some getting a little excited at the post FOMC cooling, but its really not that unusual for a fed day.

Volatility picked up with the late day equity swing lower, but the VIX still settled in the 12s, indicative of underlying capital market confidence.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just two trading days left of the month/Q3, the DAX is currently +0.2% at 12385. This is an impressive turnaround, and does offer hope of renewed upside into year end.
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A fine autumnal day, 70f, sunny

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Pre-hike chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts (0.1%) at 2915. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +1.8% at 12.42. Near term outlook offers new historic highs to the sp'2940/50s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of minor chop in equity land, but that is usually the case ahead of an FOMC announcement, even when the market knows what is coming. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX churning within the 12/11s.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just three trading days left of September, the DAX is currently +0.1% at 12374, and this is a very significant recovery from the intra low of 11865.
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Goodnight from London
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