Still twitchy on trade

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +0.8pts at 2904. Nasdaq comp' -3pts to 8010. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -2.4% at 12.07. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to around 2888, before resuming to new historic highs in the 2920/30s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was mostly just another day of minor chop in equity land, as we're still seeing the market rather twitchy to sporadic trade chatter... not least from Trump.

It is the case though that the reactive down waves are usually only moderate and brief.

Equity bears should keep in mind that a US/Canada trade agreement announcement, is viable at ANY time, and it would likely pull the main market to around sp'2940/50s before end month. A US/China agreement is clearly far more important. Many do appear to recognise the market could see an end year pop of 10%, and that would get us real close to my original year target of 3245.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EDT.
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Tepper Thursday

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +15pts (0.5%) at 2904. Nasdaq comp' +0.7% at 8013. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -5.8% at 12.37. Near term outlook offers new historic highs, with the sp'2940/50s viable by end month.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day for the equity bulls, with the sp' opening a little higher, and building moderate gains into the afternoon. The VIX was naturally subdued, melting lower for a fourth consecutive day.

Meanwhile...

Tepper's appearance on the lunchtime show was pretty interesting. Whilst he has cut back on many stock positions, he is still long Micron Tech' (MU), and its one of his biggest positions. Tepper highlighted many of the same reasons he likes the stock as I have. Further, even if you consider worse case of earnings cut in half, that still offers annual EPS of $6.00. On any basis, that would still leave the stock crazy cheap. The stock saw an extra kick higher on this mainstream chatter, with an intra high of 44.49, and settling +4.5% at $43.62.

A grander perspective: Micron Tech', monthly, 20yr

The m/t trend has been clearly broken this month, and cyclically... it ain't pretty, with a bearish macd cross due in October. However, if Micron can rebound into end month - preferably with a settlement >50.00, then the bulls can start to get confident again. Things will turn real bullish with a daily close >53.00. Earnings are due Thurs' Sept'20th in AH, and I do expect them to come in fine, with 'reasonable' guidance >$3.00.
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Goodnight from London
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Midweek moderate swings

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +1pt at 2888. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.6% at 13.14. Near term outlook offers upside to the 2900s before the weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and stayed that way for almost the entire day. There were a few sporadic swings, notably due to renewed chatter of US/China trade talks. That issue is probably not going to be resolved until November.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX churning in the 13/12s.
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Bonus, China, monthly

The Wednesday session saw a new low for the year of 2647, with the Shanghai comp' currently -2.5% for the month. Not pretty, and its clearly a drag for US listed stocks such as BABA, BIDU, JD, and TCEHY.
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Ten days until Autumn

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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