Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 6 September 2018

Bullish Trans Am

US equity indexes closed rather weak, sp -10pts (0.3%) at 2878. Nasdaq comp' -0.9% at 7922. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.7% respectively. VIX settled +5.3% to 14.65. Near term outlook offers the wild card of a US/Canada trade agreement announcement before the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another day of struggle for the US equity market. Tech lead the way lower once again, although the rest of the market never saw anything more than moderate weakness. Further, the Dow and Transports were net higher (if only fractionally) for much of the day.

I can understand that some are getting rather twitchy, but after a strong August, do the equity bulls really have anything to prove? The answer is clearly no, and any recessionary talk is to be dismissed as crazy talk.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently -3.3% at 11955. This is clearly a very borderline situation. Any sustained price action <11900 would merit alarm bells. NIRP policy via the ECB is destroying the EU financials, not least Deutsche Bank (DB), which is set to get kicked out of the STOXX 50.
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The 1970s were a simpler... and more fun time...

RIP Bandit.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 5 September 2018

Weak tech, but broadly strong

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2888. Nasdaq comp' settled -1.2% at 7995. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside into the 2900s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a rather bearish day, with the sp' opening moderately weak. There was a morning low of 2876, and then choppy upside into the late afternoon. Its notable that whilst the Nasdaq comp' did settle sig' lower, the 'old leader' - Transports, settled +0.6%, with a bullish engulfing candle.

If a US/Canada trade deal is announced before the weekend - as seems probable, new historic highs in the sp'2920s are still on track.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

China saw an overnight decline of -1.7% to 2704. For now, there is still zero sign of a floor/turn. Where are the communists at the PBOC?
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Another day closer to autumn

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 4 September 2018

September starts weak

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -4pts (0.2%) at 2896. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled +2.3% at 13.16. Near term outlook offers new historic highs in the sp'2920s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

September, and the final third of the year, began on a weak note, with moderate weakness across much of the day. The sp' saw a low of 2885, just fractionally above the downside gap of 2884/74. Volatility saw 14.35, but then cooled with a slight equity recovery, settling in the 13s. The s/t outlook offers the sp'2920s, and what will likely equate to VIX 12/11s.
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