Turkish inspired weakness

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2833. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +16.8% at 13.16. Near term outlook offers a Mon/Tuesday bounce, but technical necessity of sp'2768 is long overdue.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The implosion of the Turkish Lira riled up the European markets, which naturally infected the US. However, the sp' only opened moderately lower, with an early low of 2831, and then a bounce to 2842. A secondary cooling wave (pressured by the strengthening USD in the DXY 96s) saw a closing hour low of 2825, but then swinging back upward.

VIX jumped, seeing a high of 13.82. With a closing hour mini equity recovery, the VIX cooled, settling +16.8% at 13.16. S/t outlook offers an equity bounce Mon/Tuesday, if only to fill this morning's gap of 2839/53. Further downside to minimum technical necessity of 2768 is long overdue.
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Bonus chart: Turkey, Borsa Istanbul 100, daily

The Turkish equity market saw some powerful swings, settling the day -2.3% at 94939, well above the hyper spike low of 88598. More broadly, its been a rough year, having cooled from a Jan' high of 121531. Note the black-fail candle, marking a key multi-month top. Cyclically, due a bearish macd cross early next week, and threatens new lows for the year.

As for Turkish President Erdogan, after Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, I'm almost surprised he didn't order the banks to close today, but there is always next week for that desperate measure.

yours... bearish capital controls
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EDT, and will detail the US equity indexes.
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Strength within Tech

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -4pts (0.1%) at 2853. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +3.9% at 11.27. The s/t cyclical setup offers new historic highs >sp'2872 within 1-2 days.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another day of micro chop for the sp'500, if leaning a little weak into the close for a second day. Volatility remained broadly subdued, breaking a new multi-month low of 10.17. The s/t cyclical equity setup does favour the bulls into the weekend.
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Bonus chart: Nasdaq comp' monthly, 20yr

The Nasdaq comp' settled higher for an eighth consecutive day, and is higher for a fifth consecutive month. The 8000s are clearly viable within the immediate term. Just consider this: 8000 is 60% above old resistance of psy'5K. I'd agree the 9000s look a stretch before year end.
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Midweek chop

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -0.7pts at 2857. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.7% at 10.85. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling on Thursday to the 2840s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of minor chop, with the sp' settling effectively u/c. Volatility was naturally subdued, melting lower for a fifth day.

There is threat of a sporadic cooling wave of 2-3% to the sp'2760s, and yours truly is not the only one open to such a s/t mini washout...

In any case, the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, with the sp' on track to hit the 2950/3047 zone as early as mid/late September. Then things might get real interesting.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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