Very mixed Tuesday

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 2820. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.5% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% at 12.41. Near term outlook still threatens a 'technically necessary' mini washout to sp'2768, but that will be a challenge, as earnings are coming in broadly superb.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was very mixed Tuesday in equity land. The sp'500 saw a new multi-month high of 2829.99, with  the Nasdaq breaking a new historic high. Yet, there was some distinct cooling into the mid afternoon. The Trans and R2K both settled sig' lower, with tech effectively flat. Further, the settling sp'500 candle was of the black-fail doji type, which leans to the bears across the next few days.

Volatility continues to churn within the 13/11s. A sporadic spike to the mid 14s/15s will be a threat for the remainder of the week, even as earnings continue to come in broadly superb.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

Yes, I'm highlighting China again! With news of further fiscal stimulus, the Shanghai comp' is +2.0% at 2905. The current candle is very bullish, with a clear spike floor from 2691. It does bode rather well for other world markets into September.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Positive chop

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat positive note, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 2806. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 12.62. Near term outlook still offers the sp'2760s, before settling the month >2800, with new historic highs due in August.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a pretty subdued note. Whilst the sp' did break last week's low to 2795, there was afternoon upward melt, with most indexes (Dow was an exception) moderately higher. Volatility opened in the mid 13s, but with equities leaning back upward, the VIX melted back to the mid 12s. S/t outlook offers the sp'2760s, which would likely equate to VIX spiking to the 14/15s.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With six trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' has turned net positive, +0.4% at 2859. The PBOC are meddling of course, not least via the Yuan fix. Mainstream consensus is that things would turn 'wild' with a break >7.00 to the USD. That really isn't far up... just 3% or so.

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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.85% (Trans), +0.58% (R2K), +0.16% (nyse comp'), +0.15% (Dow), +0.02% (sp'500), to -0.07% (nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook offers brief cooling, but broadly bullish into late summer.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp'500 managed a gain of 0.5pts (0.02%) to settle at 2801. Note the 10MA at 2756, that will offer support in the 2760s next week. Upper bollinger will be offering the 2900s by late August.

Best guess: with opex out of the way, s/t downside of around 1.5% to the 2760s. Broadly though, new historic highs (>2872) look due in August. Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, which is where the market will very likely get stuck.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq was the laggard this week, settling -0.07% at 7820, but did achieve a new historic high of 7867. Upper bollinger will be offering the 8000s into end month.


Dow

The mighty Dow settled +0.15% at 25058. Note upper bollinger resistance in the 25500s. Further, note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is set to turn positive before end month. In theory, there is a realistic upside of 5-7 weeks, which will take us into early September.


NYSE comp'

The nyse settled +0.16% at 12789. Weekly price momentum has turned net positive for the first time since late January. This is a subtle, but rather bullish sign for the broader market this summer.


R2K

The R2K saw a moderate gain of 0.58% to 1696. New historic highs look viable within 1-2 weeks.


Trans

The old leader - Transports, was the leader this week, with a very significant net gain of 1.85% to 10741. Price momentum should turn positive by early August. WTIC/fuel prices remain a concern, and whilst I expect that to be a drag on the tranny, it doesn't mean the index will be net lower.
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Summary

Five indexes were net higher, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

Whilst a brief cooling wave is a threat next week, more broadly, most indexes look set for new historic highs by September.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently +13.3%. The NYSE comp' is the laggard, -0.1%.
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Looking ahead

A busy week is ahead, not least with a truck load of corp' earnings, notably: GOOGL, FB, AMZN, INTC, XOM, and TWTR.

M - Existing home sales
T - FHFA house price index, Richmond Fed'
W - New home sales, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, Durable Goods Orders, Intl' trade
F - Q2 GDP (first print), consumer sentiment.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.