Saturday, 23 June 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (Trans), -2.0% (Dow), -0.9% (sp'500), -0.7% (nasdaq comp', nyse comp'), to +0.1% (R2K). Near term outlook offers further downside of 2-3%


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' saw an intra week high of 2774, but settled -24pts (0.9%) at 2754, as last week's black-fail candle played out. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has seen a rollover, and it bodes s/t bearish into end month/early July. Basic downside target is 2718, with secondary of 2671 - the partly unfilled gap from May 9th. More broadly, big target of 2950/3047 still looks on track for late summer/early autumn.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq saw a net weekly decline of -0.7%, but with a notable new historic high of 7806. S/t bearish with the broader market. The 8000s are clearly coming this summer. The only issue is whether the 9000s might sync with sp'3K.


Dow


The mighty Dow cooled for a second week, with a net weekly decline of a significant -2.0% to 24580. S/t bearish with the main market, as trade/tariff chatter is particularly impacting the international stocks, such as CAT and BA.


NYSE comp'


The master index cooled -0.7% to 12639. Price action since mid March has been rather tight, but leaning on the upward side. S/t bearish, with big support in the 12200s.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, managed a fractional net weekly gain of +0.1% to 1685, with a new historic high of 1708. First support is around 1650.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, saw a very significant net weekly decline of -2.7% to 10773. Higher energy prices look set to be a drag on the tranny across the summer. S/t bearish with first support of 10500.



Summary

A broadly bearish week, with five indexes lower, and one fractionally higher.

The Nasdaq comp' and R2K, broke new historic highs.

The Dow and Transports are struggling on trade/tariff chatter, and higher oil price concerns.

YTD price performance...


The Nasdaq continues to lead, currently net higher for 2018 by 11.4%, the R2K +9.8%, and the sp +3.0%. The Transports is +1.5%, Dow -0.5%, with the NYSE comp' -1.3% 
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Looking ahead

Key earnings: CCL (Mon'), LEN (Tue'), BBBY (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), STZ (Fri')

M - New home sales
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - Durable goods orders, intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA report
T - Q1 GDP (third print), weekly jobs, stress test results part'2.
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

As Friday will be end month, Q2, and H1, I would look for increasingly dynamic and choppy price action into the weekend.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 22 June 2018

A mixed end to the week

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 2754. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -5.9% at 13.77. Near term outlook offers sp'2779 on Monday, before another rollover, as 2718 remains due.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, then saw some chop, not helped as the US President was posting once more on Twitter. Equities battled upward into the afternoon, but did see some distinct weakness in the closing minutes.

Volatility was notably subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the 13s. Near term outlook offers VIX 16/17s, assuming sp'2718, whether next week, or early July.

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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 21 June 2018

Typical Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 2749. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled 14.5% at 14.64. Near term outlook offers a bounce to 2779, before resuming lower to technical necessity of 2718 next week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and quickly unravelled to a morning floor of sp'2748. From there, upside to 2760, a cooling wave to 2749, and then resuming upward into late afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing 15.18, the highest level since May 31st. There was some latter day cooling, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s. Near term outlook offers sp'2779, before another rollover. Prime target remains sp'2718, which will likely equate to VIX 16/17s.
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Bonus chart: China


It was another rough day for Chinese equities, settling -1.4% at 2875. Its a case of technical open air to the Feb' 2016 low of 2638, and that is another 8.2% lower.
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Goodnight from London
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