Powell on Parade

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat weak note, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 2775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +4.9% to 12.94. Near term outlook offers sig' weakness, a quad-opex settlement around sp'2755 would be particularly natural.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, and broadly stayed that way into the 2pm press release from Print Central. As expected, the fed raised rates 25bps to a new target range of 1.75-2.00%. Most notable, is that fed consensus is for FOUR hikes this year. This is something of a surprise, although at the start of this year, yours truly did call for four hikes.

Fed Chair Powell

Volatility remained very subdued, settling in the upper 12s. Near term outlook offers the sp'2750s, with 'minimum technical necessity' of sp'2718, and that would arguably equate to 15/16s.
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If you think higher rates are a negative, I strongly recommend you watch the following on a loop for at least one hour.


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Coming in 2019...



... and Dumbo is clearly bullish Disney.  
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed somewhat higher, sp +4pts (0.2%) at 2786. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% at 12.34. Near term outlook still offers a retrace to sp'2718, although today's new historic highs in the R2K and Nasdaq comp' argue against it.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was day of mostly minor chop in equity land, with the sp' trading within 2789/78. However, the R2K and Nasdaq comp' both broke new historic highs, and are a reminder of underlying m/t strength.

Volatility was naturally subdued in the 12/11s, settling -0.1% at 12.34.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently net higher for June by 1.9% at 12842. Note the divergence in the macd (black line) between spring 2016 and Jan'2018. For now, price momentum does favour the German bears, new historic highs will not be easy. The '5 wave counters' could justifiably call a mid/long term top from the Jan' high of 13596. NIRP from the ECB is certainly not helping, least of all, for the systemic risk to the EU, that is Deutsche Bank.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Starting positive

US equities began the week on a slightly positive note, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2782. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 12.35. Near term outlook offers Tuesday weakness as low as sp'2760, with a more broader target of 2718.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week on a positive note, and after some fractional chop, clawed upward into the early afternoon to sp'2790 - the highest level since March 13th. The closing hour saw some moderate cooling to settle at 2782. The s/t cyclical setup for Tuesday is bearish, although we could certainly open higher on a Trump/Kim deal.

Volatility was itself very subdued, with the VIX settling fractionally higher in the mid 12s. A burst to the 15/16s is a valid threat, not least as the fed are set to raise rates.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

Chinese equities are still leaning on the weaker side, breaking a new low for the year of 3037. Clearly, if psy' 3K is lost, that'd lead to some mainstream concern, and spiral things somewhat lower.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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