Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2779. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.4% at 12.18. Near term outlook still offers a basic cooling wave to sp'2718, but more broadly, by late summer, the sp' should have reached big target of 2950/3047.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, partly just a combination of s/t cyclical cooling, trade-talk concerns ahead of the G7. There was a moderate swing higher that took the sp'500 just shy of the Thurs' morning high.

Volatility saw the low 13s in early morning, but with equities clawing back upward, the VIX melted into the weekend, settling just fractionally higher in the low 12s.
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Bonus chart: Brazil, monthly

The Bovespa settled Friday -1.2%, which makes for a current net June decline of -5.0% at 72942. Due a bearish macd cross... much like summer 2008. Not so bullish.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Mixed Thursday

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -2pts at 2770. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +4.2% at 12.13. Near term outlook still offers a basic retrace to at least sp'2718.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, breaking a new multi-month high of 2779. From there though, price action leaned weak into mid afternoon with a low of 2760. A late day mini ramp saw a settlement at 2770, the first daily decline in a week. Notably, the R2K and Nasdaq comp' broke another set of historic highs, giving further confidence for the summer ahead.

Volatility saw a mixed day, from a cash market low of 11.70, to an afternoon high of 13.28. With a late day equity recovery, the VIX cooled, but did manage a minor gain, settling in the low 12s. The 14/15s look a given, although we could see a little beyond that, depending on the style of price action between 2770 and 2718.

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Midweek strength

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.8%) at 2772. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.6%. VIX settled -6.1% at 11.64. Near term outlook offers zero sign of a turn, but a retrace to sp'2718 remains a basic technical necessity.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but saw a little weakness, turning fractionally weak. A secondary up wave took the sp'500 to 2772 into the close, which is notably 100pts shy of the Jan' historic high. The R2K and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs, which bodes bullish for the main market across the summer.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling in the mid 11s. If we do see an equity cooling wave, the VIX could be expected to see a brief spike to the 14/15s.

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