Mixed Thursday

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -2pts at 2770. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +4.2% at 12.13. Near term outlook still offers a basic retrace to at least sp'2718.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, breaking a new multi-month high of 2779. From there though, price action leaned weak into mid afternoon with a low of 2760. A late day mini ramp saw a settlement at 2770, the first daily decline in a week. Notably, the R2K and Nasdaq comp' broke another set of historic highs, giving further confidence for the summer ahead.

Volatility saw a mixed day, from a cash market low of 11.70, to an afternoon high of 13.28. With a late day equity recovery, the VIX cooled, but did manage a minor gain, settling in the low 12s. The 14/15s look a given, although we could see a little beyond that, depending on the style of price action between 2770 and 2718.

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Midweek strength

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.8%) at 2772. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.6%. VIX settled -6.1% at 11.64. Near term outlook offers zero sign of a turn, but a retrace to sp'2718 remains a basic technical necessity.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but saw a little weakness, turning fractionally weak. A secondary up wave took the sp'500 to 2772 into the close, which is notably 100pts shy of the Jan' historic high. The R2K and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs, which bodes bullish for the main market across the summer.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling in the mid 11s. If we do see an equity cooling wave, the VIX could be expected to see a brief spike to the 14/15s.

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The downside to Twitter

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1.9pts at 2748. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.7% respectively. VIX settled -2.7% at 12.40. Near term outlook still offers basic cooling to sp'2718, which should equate to VIX 14/15s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, with the sp' leaning upward, and seeing an early high of 2752 - notably filling the gap from March 19th. From there, a s/t cyclical rollover, with some choppy cooling to 2739, before choppy upside in the afternoon.

The R2K and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs, and regardless of any s/t cooling, such new highs bode very bullish for the main market this summer.

Volatility opened weak to 12.50, filling the gap from May 25th. From there the VIX saw a micro spike to the 13.30s, but then melted back into the 12s in the afternoon. S/t outlook offers minimum downside to sp'2718, which should equate to VIX 14/15s.
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The downside to Twitter

With news of an inclusion (from this Thursday morning) to the sp'500, Twitter stock had another very strong day. The stock is m/t bullish, and looks set for psy'50 by late summer.

TWTR, monthly

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 Yours truly has regularly posted on Twitter since spring 2017. That has been very beneficial, helping to greatly increase my audience at zero expense, other than my own time and energy. However, there is a downside, and here is just one example from this morning...

My name was @ tagged in a tweet from one person about the UK Govt', but that then devolved into 'world leader' chatter, with this...

See the 'replying to' part? My name was part of a group of 17 that the original poster (some 5-6 tweets higher) sent out in the initial tweet.

In terms of the tweet by RJ, I'll restrain myself, and merely say I wish to not be associated in ANY way with that kind of sentiment. I'd imagine Xi wouldn't be particularly pleased to see himself being included within that quintet.

Here is the issue though, Twitter, has an increasingly complicated rule set, one of which is effectively 'guilt by association'. There are a fair few Twitter users who have been shadow banned, or just outright seen their accounts scrubbed, because someone has tagged their name within a tweet that the Twitter algo has deemed as nasty, etc.

As of right now, there is no way to stop someone from tagging your twitter name/handle, and adding it to a tweet/message that might be against Twitter T&Cs. It is a problem, and I'm not hopeful it will be resolved any time soon.

Suggestion/request: a simple feature/option to allow a Twitter user (via their profile settings) to prevent ANY non-follower (or blocked user) from tagging your name.

Ohh, and I still continue to believe Twitter should charge an annual fee, if only $25, to help dissuade some of the lunatics from 'contributing'. I'd agree though, that maybe 95% of the user base would disappear overnight with such a policy.
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