June begins positive

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +29pts (1.1%) at 2734. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.8% respectively. VIX settled -12.8% to 13.46. Near term outlook threatens another wave lower to the sp'2670s, before a better chance of pushing into the 2800s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With the monthly jobs data coming in 'goldilocks' (at least to the mainstream), equities opened moderately higher, and with no spooky news, the market clawed upward into the mid afternoon. The intra high was 2736, notably 6pts shy of what is a double top of 2742. Until that is cleared, the equity bulls should be concerned of another wave lower to around 2671. Some indexes - such as the Nasdaq comp' and R2K, would argue the sp' breaks upward.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode. The VIX flash printed 13.56 in pre-market, but even that was taken out in cash-market hours (intra low 13.37), settling at 13.46.
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For the week...

A net weekly gain of 13pts (0.5%), with a spike low from 2676. Note the upper bollinger, offering the 2840s. The original big target 'concrete wall' zone of 2950/3047 really isn't that much of a stretch, given another 3-5mths.
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May settles weak

US equity indexes ended May on a rather bearish note, sp -18pts (0.7%) at 2705. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.5% and -0.8% respectively. VIX settled +3.3% at 15.43. Near term outlook offers Friday capitulation to sp'2671, before resuming upward, as the 2800s still look due.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, with a morning low of 2707, and then a bounce to 2722. The afternoon saw renewed downside, as the EU issued an announcement on retaliatory tariffs. Minimum target of 2702 was achieved, with secondary target of 2671 very viable before the weekend.

Volatility naturally picked up, with the VIX settling in the mid 15s. If we see the sp'2670s on Friday, that should result in VIX 17/18s.
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Bonus chart: sp' monthly

Despite the bearish end to the month, the sp'500 was net higher by 57pts (2.2%). Note the settlement well above the key 10MA at 2641.
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No sun for the equity bulls into end month

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Wednesday bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +34pts (1.3%) at 2724. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +1.5%. VIX settled -12.2% at 14.94. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave to at least sp'2702, with secondary target of 2671.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built significant gains into the afternoon. There was a subtle late afternoon rollover from 2729.

With the equity rebound, volatility was naturally in cooling mode, settling in the upper 14s. Near term outlook offers another cooling wave to at least sp'2702, There is almost equal threat of a marginally lower low to 2671, just under the key 50dma. Regardless, even the latter will do nothing to the m/t outlook, as the 2800s remain due.

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