Permabear Doomster

Friday, 18 May 2018

Opex chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -7pts at 2712. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% at 13.42. ear term outlook still threatens a washout to the sp'2670s, before swinging upward to the 2800s in June.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened a little weak, and remained in micro chop mode for the day.Volatility was naturally subdued, melting fractionally lower into the close, settling in the mid 13s.

Near term outlook still threatens a mini washout to the sp'2670s, which would arguably equate to VIX 16/17s. Broadly though, the US equity market appears rather strong. The fact the R2K broke another new historic high today certainly gives some support to that view.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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* the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US equity indexes.
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Thursday, 17 May 2018

Thursday chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2720. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled +0.1% at 13.43. Near term outlook still offers weakness to the sp'2670s, before swinging strongly back upward, with a grander run to the 2800s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, seeing an early low of 2713. From there, a push upward to 2731, fully filling the Tues' gap of 2718/30. The afternoon saw a moderate swing lower, breaking a new intraday low of 2711, before choppy upside to settle -2pts at 2720.

Volatility saw minor swings, settling fractionally higher in the mid 13s. If we do see a secondary wave lower to the sp'2670s, then a brief VIX spike to the 16/17s is probable.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 16 May 2018

R2K new historic high

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts (0.4%) at 2722. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -8.3% at 13.42. Near term outlook offers another sig' wave lower, to the sp'2670s, before swinging back upward for opex.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and saw choppy upside to yesterday's gap of 2718/30. From an afternoon high of 2727, there was some distinct late afternoon cooling to 2717, but settling at 2722.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling in the mid 13s. If we do see another sig' wave lower to the sp'2670s, then VIX 16/17s... if very briefly.
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Most notable today was the R2K, which broke a new historic high of 1620.

R2K weekly

As highlighted this past weekend, the R2K is especially strong, currently higher for a THIRD consecutive month. Note price structure of a bullish pennant/triangle, which is now fully confirmed. The strength in the R2K bodes well for the rest of the market this summer.
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