Waiting for a delivery

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -15pts at 2693. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +2.3% at 15.96. Near term outlook offers opex chop into the weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and saw gradual cooling into the afternoon. The low of 2681 should hold into the weekend. Tomorrow is opex, and it would be natural if the market markets want to pin the market to around sp'2700.

Volatility did pick up, but with sp'2681, the VIX maxed out at 16.92, and settling in the upper 15s.
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Waiting for a delivery

Over the years, some of my calls have been terrible, but some... profoundly right. Since the spike high of $31.18 in July 2016, I've been increasingly bearish on the corporate giant of General Electric.

GE, monthly

We saw a key break of trend in May 2017, and with the loss of the $27s, I boldly called for the $22s. I warned at the time that if that threshold failed to hold, the stock would see the $13s. Naturally... most laughed.

see: https://twitter.com/permabear_uk/status/926600542725529605

The $22s were of course lost, with a straight implosion to the $13s. Having already seen the $12s, its not that bold to call for capitulation sub $10. Further, I do see the stock being kicked from the Dow, and by definition... Flannery would have to quietly walk away, likely no later than spring 2019. So... about those arms and legs...

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ps. Hello 'Wells'. I do tend to remember such tweets. A subscription would suffice, rather than a shipping delivery.
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London, April 19th 2018, sunshine and 80f. Bullish.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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If you value my work, subscribe to me.

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Looking ahead

It was a day of mostly minor chop in equity land, with the sp' settling +0.1% at 2708. Meanwhile, oil remains very strong, breaking a new multi-year high of $68.72.


sp'weekly1b

WTIC weekly

Summary

sp: as things are, the sp' is comfortably on track for a second consecutive net weekly gain. It could certainly be argued price structure since late January is a giant bullish pennant, offering new historic highs this summer/autumn. Original big target of 2950/3047 would still be the more natural level at which this market might max out, whether you start from early 2016... or even back to March 2009.

WTIC: a net daily gain of 2.9% to $68.47, as a more natural s/t high would be from psy'70. Jim Iuorio is seeking a near term top, with a downside target of the $63s, and his view is always to be considered.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual week jobs, phil' fed, and leading indicators.

Key earnings: BK, BX, and NVS.
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Earnings continue to come in fine...

Its merits some reflection that the earnings beats are on analysts estimates that have generally been recently raised . AXP is fine, but far superior alts are MA and V.  Alcoa is warning of a global aluminum deficit for 2018, and it'll perhaps be useful to check on aluminum prices at least occasionally this summer.
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Normal service to resume

Today sure didn't go as planned. I woke up, boot up my desktop, only to find my private server was offline (malicious attack). So, it was back to my old home here. Tomorrow I'll be back at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com.

For many of you new people, if you liked what you read today, and that most certainly includes my work @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk, then subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html
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A taste of summer

Goodnight from London
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*the next post on this page will appear Thurs', around 6pm EST.

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +2pts at 2708. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.7% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +2.3% at 15.60. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, but the market looks comfortably on track for a second consecutive net weekly gain.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

sp: a daily of minor chop. Note the settling black-fail doji candle, which does warn of s/t bullish exhaustion. Thursday's do tend to favour the equity bears. Soft downside would be the lower hourly bollinger, which will be in the 2680/70s tomorrow.

nas: a day of minor chop for tech, with the Nasdaq comp' settling +0.2% at 7295, notably holding above the 50dma. Thursday does threaten some cooling, soft support 7200, with secondary at 7k.
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VIX'daily3

With equities seeing a touch of cooling into the close, the VIX managed a net daily gain (intra high 16.90), settling +2.3% at 15.60. There is a notable upside gap of 19/20, which would surely equate to sig' downside in equities of 1.5-2.0%. Its something to keep in mind across the next few days.

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Looking ahead by 6pm EST