Thursday follow through

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +18pts (0.7%) at 2662. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +0.7% respectively. VIX settled -5.6% at 18.94. Near term outlook offers cooling to at least the sp'2630/20 zone.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and broadly climbed into the afternoon. With a positive market, volatility cooled for a third consecutive day, settling in the upper 18s.

Friday should be interesting as not only do we have the monthly jobs data, but Fed chair Powell is due in the 1pm hour, and Mr Market will be watching.

There will be live coverage on the main financial networks, but there will also be a live feed
see:  https://www.youtube.com/user/EconomicClubChicago
--

Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

We've a long month ahead, but as things are, the Nikkei is +2.3% at 21645. The 21k threshold remains very important. Core rising trend is currently around 20k. At the current rate, we're due a bearish MACD cross within 1-2 months, and that would merit alarm bells.
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Wednesday reversal

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +30pts at 2644 (intra low 2573). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +1.3% respectively. VIX settled -4.9% at 20.06. Near term outlook offers Thursday weakness, but after today's reversal, the Monday low of 2553 arguably is just a marginally higher low - relative to Feb'9th.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, as the mainstream was spooked by Chinese trade tariff news. However, there was a reversal almost immediately from sp'2573. By late afternoon, most indexes had built rather significant gains.

It was a mixed day for the VIX, opening in the mid 24s, but settling moderately lower, just above the key 20 threshold.

Unless we see VIX >26s, equity bears should be largely resigned that the Monday low of sp'2553 is to be treated as a marginally higher low - relative to Feb'9th. That sure doesn't mean Thurs/Friday can't see some sig' downside, but this morning's low does look pretty secure.
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.



For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +32pts at 2613. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +2.0% and +1.3% respectively. VIX settled -10.7% at 21.10. Near term outlook offers a test of the Feb' low of 2532, with big target of 2470/50 zone, before climbing across earnings season.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were quickly eroded, with an early low of 2575. From there.. another push upward to 2619, with further chop into the close. Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling in the 21s. Its notable the VIX is sustainably holding above the key 20 threshold, a level the market never once saw last year.
--


Germany, monthly

The economic powerhouse of the EU is still struggling, with the DAX currently -0.8% at 12002. Things would turn very bearish <11300, the 11k threshold to be decisive. The '5 wave' counters could arguably call a grand top in the German market. The obvious big target would be 8k.
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html