A fourth day lower

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2747 (intra low 2741). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers upside (if choppy) into the quad-opex weekly close. More broadly, a push to new historic highs remains on the menu this spring, lead by the Nasdaq.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursday was pretty similar to the previous three days, opening higher (if only fractionally), but then choppily cooling into the afternoon. Yesterday's low was broken, as the equity bears came close to fully filling last Friday's price gap of 2752/38. Its notable that whilst the sp'500 did settle lower for a fourth consecutive day, the Dow and Transports managed to settle higher.

The VIX remained rather subdued, and even though equities broke a new multi-day low, the VIX could not break a new high, and settled a little lower in the mid 16s.


Bonus chart: China, monthly

Half way through the month, with the Shanghai comp' net higher by around 1.0% at 3291. Note the key 10MA at 3322. The equity bulls should be seeking a March settlement above that MA, to give renewed hope that a major push >3500 is coming.
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Spring is coming!

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Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -15pts at 2749. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 17.23. Near term outlook offers a little Thursday weakness, before building a floor ahead of next Wednesday's rate hike.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and just like the previous two days, saw an early high, and then rolled over. Last Friday's gap of 2752/38 has been almost fully filled. There was significant weakness within industrials, with the mighty Dow settling -1.0%.

Volatility climbed for a third consecutive day, having seen the 17s. Its possible we'll briefly see the 18/19s tomorrow. No VIX above the key 20 threshold looks viable for the remainder of this week.
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Meanwhile...

I might have some things to say on that appointment another day.
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One week until spring... and a rate hike.

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... and finally...



The historians of the 24th century will look back with great admiration for Prof' Hawking.
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Tuesday reversal

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -17pts at 2765 (intra range 2801/2758). Nasdaq comp' -1.0%.  The Trans/R2K settled +0.5% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +3.6% at 16.35. Near term outlook offers further cooling to the sp'2752/38 zone, before resuming broadly upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the sp' pushing to 2801. Much like yesterday though, that was the high of day, and the market then swung significantly lower, settling broadly weak. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high for the third consecutive day.

Volatility picked up for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 16s. Near term outlook offers further cooling to last Friday's opening gap of sp'2752/38, which would likely equate to VIX 17/18s. I don't expect any price action <2720, nor the VIX sustainably >20.
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Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

We now have two monthly candles with spike floors, from around the key 21k breakout threshold. This should give some confidence to the bulls for the mid term. Its just one market of many, but the Nikkei is certainly an important index to keep in mind for the monthly settlement.

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Spring is just 8 days away

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