Swings into the weekend

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +13pts at 2691 (intra low 2647). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +1.7% respectively. VIX settled -12.8% at 19.59. Near term outlook threatens one further wave lower to 2630, with the key Feb' low of 2532 looking comfortably intact.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, with an early low of sp'2647. There was a significant rally that continued all the way into the late afternoon. The daily gain of 0.5% is arguably inconclusive, as to whether we have a completed washout wave from 2789. I'm guessing... no.

The VIX saw a very mixed day, swinging from the 26s to settle in the 19s.I'm still concerned of one final push to 30/34, before broad cooling across March/April.
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A bearish week: sp'weekly

A net weekly decline of -56pts (2.0%), as the weekly MACD cycle increasingly favours the equity bears. For now, the Feb' low of 2532 still looks secure.

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Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12PM, and will detail ten of the world equity markets. It remains my most important post of each month.
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Thorny Thursday

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -36pts (1.3%) at 2677. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +13.2% at 22.47. Near term outlook offers capitulation around sp'2630, which would make for a 61% retrace of the 2532/2789 wave.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

I've never actually crunched the numbers, but having watched this nonsense for over a quarter century, I have long noticed that Thursday's tend to favour the equity bears. There are a few reasons for this, not least that downward pressure can take some days to build.

Today was an especially thorny day in market land. Pre-market moderate declines were negated by the open, but then the sellers appeared, only for the market to bounce from 2699. The bounce was very shaky, and the market rolled over again, and then very significantly imploded into the afternoon. The following sure didn't help...

... tariff chatter from Trump really upset the mainstream, and almost everything - except the Steel and Alu' producer stocks, swung significantly lower. The afternoon break <2690 saw equities spiral lower, with an afternoon low of 2659, notably under the 50% fib' retrace.

With equities lower for a third day, the VIX swung upward from a morning low in the mid 19s, to the mid 25s, and settling in the mid 22s.

Best guess: further weakness to sp'2630, as VIX 30/34 will be technically viable. On no realistic outlook do I expect the recent sp'2532 low to be broken under.
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Failed gains

US equity indexes closed significantly weak, sp -30pts (1.1%) at 2713. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.6% respectively.  VIX settled +6.8% at 19.85. Yesterday's bearish engulfing daily candles were confirmed, offering further weakness at least the basic 38% fib' of sp'2691.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Yesterday saw bearish engulfing candles for most indexes. This morning opened moderately higher, climbing to 2761, but then we saw another significant reversal to settle net lower.Today's failed gains fully confirm yesterday's reversal. We're arguably seeing the first proper retrace from the initial wave of 2532>2789. The 38% fib' retrace of 2691 looks highly probable.

With equities unravelling into the late afternoon, the VIX surged from a morning low of 17.39 to 20.44, and settling in the upper 19s. Further upside to the 22/25 zone looks probable.


The February settlement: sp'monthly

Yes, the sp' saw a very significant net monthly decline of -110pts (3.9%) to 2713, but this was far above the intra month low of 2532. Note the hyper spike from around the key 10MA. M/t upside to the 2950/3047 zone still looks due, where the market will be highly inclined to become seriously stuck.
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A rare snow day in the London metropolis

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