Spike floor from the 200dma

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +38pts (1.5%) at 2619 (range: 2532/2638). The Dow and Nasdaq comp' both gained 1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.9% respectively. VIX settled -13.1% at 29.06. Near term outlook offers initial upside to the sp'2720/30s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened positive, but then took yet another powerful swing lower, breaking yesterday's low, and spiralling downward. The 200dma was taken out, but then the market saw a spike floor of 2532, and then began to battle choppily upward. There was a late afternoon surge upward, settling +1.5% at 2619, a very significant 87pts above the low.

Volatility was itself very volatile, with the VIX hitting the 41s, but then rapidly cooling as equities hyper spiked. The weekly close in the 29s still makes for a very elevated VIX.

Preliminary thoughts on next week: a basic 2-3% of upside, as the bears get ground out, with the old 'dip buyers' starting to return. 
--

Bullish UV light.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
 --
 *the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US equity indexes.

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Ugly Thursday

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -100pts at 2581, notably breaking the Tuesday morning low of 2593. Dow -1032pts (4.1%) at 23860. Nasdaq comp' -274pts (3.9%) at 6777. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.8% and -2.9% respectively. The VIX settled +20.7% at 33.46.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equity indexes opened a little choppy, but then started to slide... and just kept on falling. It was frankly... a damn ugly day, with the sp' breaking the Tuesday morning low of 2593, settling at 2581. This is 291pts (10.1%) below the Jan' high of 2872. We're seeing a main market correction for the first time since Jan/Feb'2016.

With equities powerfully lower, volatility naturally picked up. However, its notable that the VIX settlement in the 33s, is way below the Monday afternoon high of 46.34. Its one of a number of divergences, that subtly suggest that the most bearish equity downside was on Monday afternoon.

I can understand if some are getting seriously spooked, and wondering if we're in some kind of far larger crash wave. All of this... sparked by mainstream chatter about average earnings +2.9%, and the US 10yr >2.80%. I will add, even yours truly is starting to get just a little bit twitchy.
--


Bonus chart: China, monthly

The Shanghai comp' is currently -6.3% at 3262, the lowest level since Aug'2017. Are the PBOC on holiday or something? China bulls should be desperate to see a recovery to at least settle February above the 10MA in the low 3300s.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -13pts (0.5%) at 2681 (range 2684/2727). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -7.5% at 27.73. Near term outlook offers further chop, but leaning upward, with the Tuesday low of 2593 increasingly secure.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, but then swung significantly upward from 2684 to an intra high of 2727. There was a late day cooling wave, even breaking a new intraday low of 2681. The daily candle bodes for (at least) early Thursday weakness. Price action is pretty choppy, but distinctly less than the previous two days. Its really a case of the market in a stabilisation phase.

Volatility cooled for a seconday, with the VIX settling in the 27s. This is notably still an elevated level, and even today's close is way above the 2017 peak of the 17s.
--


Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

I realise many of you don't care (although you should), but the Nikkei is currently net lower for the month by -6.3% in the 21600s. So long as 21k holds... m/t bullish. I would acknowledge, that you could count 5 giant waves from the key low of Oct'2008. Those holding a broadly bullish outlook for global equities should be carefully monitoring the Japanese market.
--

Another day closer to the green shoots of spring

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html