Carboni on the same page

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp +1pt at 2839. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.0% at 11.58. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, big target remains the sp'2950/3047 zone.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were quickly negated. There was a wave higher into the afternoon, only for a CNBC interview with Trump to knock things back lower. Recent strength in equities/commodities has (at least to some extent) been helped via the depreciating USD. Today's bullish dollar comments from Trump were directly responsible.

Further, keep in mind the importance of the DXY 88s. They are a massively key threshold that stretch all the way back to 2003. Today saw a clear bounce from DXY 88.26 to the mid 89s.
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Carboni on the same page

I've been following Mr C since 2008, and his targets are not to be dismissed lightly. Oscar had an ES target last year of 2650, 33pts below my sp'500 target of 2683. Today, Oscar issued his target for 2018...


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Oscar's ES target of 3258 is just 13pts above my own sp'500 target of 3245. Frankly, its very pleasing to see him post a similar target, and remaining on the same page as yours truly.

The secondary issue about commodities is also very important. For the infamous 'gold bugs' out there, things are soon to get real interesting. Even if the USD can see a multi-week up wave into the spring, it doesn't fully prevent Gold breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold. If correct, major implications for the related miners, some of which - such as Newmont Mining (NEM), have already achieved bullish breakouts.
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A fine day in London city

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -1.6pts at 2837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +4.4% at 11.46. Near term outlook threatens a further little weakness, but nothing <2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 zone remains on track within 2-5mths.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened higher, with the usual quintet of indexes breaking new historic highs. Again, the transports was the laggard, dragged lower by the market's (bizarre) notion that an air price war is a threat via increased capacity. There was a somewhat significant swing lower around 10.35am, with the sp' cooling from 2852 to 2824, before an afternoon recovery.

Volatility was positive for almost the entire day, settling moderately higher in the low 11s. Its notable the VIX has seen 11 positive closes out of 14 days. That is rather unusual. However, I still don't see any chance of sustained high volatility until equities have climbed another 4-5%.
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Bonus chart: Brazil, monthly

The Bovespa is currently +9.5% at 83680. Its well on the way toward m/t bullish target of 100k. As I regularly note, higher commodity prices will especially help the BRICs.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Behold, the acceleration

US equity indexes closed a little mixed,  sp +6pts at 2839. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 11.10. Near term outlook offers the 2850/60s before end month. More broadly, big target remains 2950/3047, where we'll get stuck.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but it was enough to generate new historic highs in five of the six main indexes (Transports remains a little laggy). With equities broadly strong, the VIX was subdued, settling in the low 11s.
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Behold, the acceleration

sp'monthly3b

When seen on a linear chart, you can really see the acceleration that I have been seeking. Even to me though, sp +165pts (6.2%) is pretty incredible to see.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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