Submit your outlook for 2018

It was another bullish week for the US equity market, with the sp'500 net higher for a fifth week, +7pts (0.3%) at 2683, with a notable new historic high of 2694. Near term outlook offers some chop into year end. More broadly, even the mainstream now recognise sp'3K is on the menu for 2018.


sp'weekly

Summary

Of the six indexes I regularly highlight, five broke new historic highs this week. Only the R2K missed out, but even that remains very close to recent highs.

Cyclically, we're on the high side, and the market does look vulnerable in the seasonally weak period of mid Jan-early Feb. At best, there seems a viable threat of a 5% washout, before quickly recovering, and pushing onward to challenge the 3K threshold by mid year.
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Looking ahead

A light 4 day week is ahead...


M - CLOSED - Christmas day
T - Richmond fed
W - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', pending home sales
T - Intl' trade, weekly jobs, EIA Pet' & Nat' gas reports,
F - Chicago PMI

*As Friday is the last trading day of 2017, there will likely be some very significant tax-loss selling in select stocks (GE being a prime candidate).

**Keep in mind, the following Monday, Jan'1st, the US market will be CLOSED.
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Looking back to look forward

At the start of the year I provided a year end target of sp'2683.

Original post: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/weekend-update-outlook-for-2017.html 


sp'monthly6b

Its notable that this week closed precisely on target, and now its a case of exactly how the year settles. I'll be very pleased with anything +/- 26pts, which does seem probable.
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My outlook for 2018?

I'm still trying to narrow down a broad range to a specific 'best guess' target, along with some broader issues (such as rate hikes, growth).


Now is YOUR opportunity to submit your outlook for 2018. 

I'm interested in two aspects....

Primary: what is your end 2018 target for the sp'500 ?

Secondary: ANY other issues you'd like to raise.. whether equity indexes, individual stocks, GDP, jobs, inflation, oil, gold/silver/copper, bonds. You can even highlight anything socio-political.


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You can submit your target/outlook via Twitter ( https://twitter.com/permabear_uk ), Disqus (in this, or any future post), or email. If you want to change anything, let me know.

The deadline for submissions: Monday January 1st

I will likely post a detailed outlook for 2018, along with your submissions, no later than the weekend of Jan'6/7th.
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*The next scheduled post will be Tuesday Dec'26th at 6pm EST.

Minor chop into Christmas

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1pt at 2683. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +2.9% at 9.90. Near term outlook offers moderate swings across the remaining four trading days of the year.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was naturally a day of micro chop into the Christmas break. Most indexes leaned fractionally weak across the day, but in the scheme of things, it was largely all just 'minor noise'.

Volatility itself was subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the 9s. 2017 is set to be the first year since 2005, that we've not seen any price action above the key 20 threshold. 

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Awaiting the Christmas break

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +5pts at 2684. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.0% at 9.62. Near term outlook offers minor chop into the Christmas break. The sp'2700s and Dow 25k seem probable before year end. More broadly, many are now seeking sp'3K in 2018.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a bullish day, as we did see two indexes - NYSE comp', and Transports, break new historic highs.

As expected, with each day, more of the mainstream are jumping aboard the sp'3K train...

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Today was winter solstice, the long crawl into summer 2018 has begun.

Goodnight from London