A bullish end to November

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts at 2647. with the Dow +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.0% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 11.28. The m/t outlook remains powerfully bullish, and its notable that today's high of sp'2657 was a mere 26pts (1.0%) from my year end target of 2683.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built rather significant gains into the afternoon, with a quintet of index historic highs: Dow, sp, nyse comp', R2K, and the Transports. There was some latter day cooling from sp'2657 to '41, but having climbed 100pts across 11 trading days, it was a bullish end to the month.

Despite equities breaking new highs, the VIX actually continued to claw upward, seeing an intra high of 12.05, and settling in the low 11s. It was notably the 5th daily gain of the past 6 sessions.

We have five downside gaps in the sp'500, and normally those could be expected to fill. However, there are very decisive bullish breakouts in a number of key stocks, and its suggestive we won't even retrace to the 2600 threshold in the immediate term. More broadly, the 2700s are now a viable target before year end.

I recognise some will deem recent price action 'Euphoria', and will call (yet another) mid/long term top, but I'd argue they have no perspective, nor seem aware of price structure in the US or any other world equity market.


The monthly close

The sp'500 settled higher for an EIGHTH consecutive month, +72pts (2.8%) to 2647. The monthly RSI is now at 83, which is pretty astounding, and even higher than levels seen in 2013/14.
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... and that is how November settled in my part of the world.

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An exceptionally mixed day

US equity indexes closed exceptionally mixed, sp -1pt at 2626, with the Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.3% and 0.4% respectively. VIX settled +6.7% at 10.70. Near term outlook threatens a washout to sp'2572/64, before another surge that should take the market to 2650/700 by year end.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but it was enough to generate new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. However, there was discernible weakness within tech in early morning. With key technical breaks, things spiralled lower in stocks such as MU, NVDA, and NFLX, and that pinned the main market back to some extent.

There was contrasting strength in energy, retail, and financials. Some stocks saw key bullish breakouts (BAC, PSX), whilst others (HD) simply pushed to new historic highs. The NYSE comp', R2K, and Trans' broke new highs in the afternoon, making for another quintet of index highs.

Volatility did see a kick upward, with the VIX settling higher for the fourth day of five. If sp'2570/60s, we could (in theory) see VIX in the mid/upper teens. More broadly though, the sp'2650/700 zone still looks viable into year end, as earnings and the econ-data continue to come in broadly fine.

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The Powell

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +25pts at 2627. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.6% at 10.03. Near term outlook offers cooling to 2572/64, but more broadly, the original year end target of 2683 is within range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built broad gains into the early afternoon. A North Korean missile launch spooked the market from 2621 to 2610, but then tax chatter saw the market rebound straight to new historic highs. Of the six indexes I regularly highlight, five broke new historic highs. On any basis.. it was a very bullish day.

Market volatility saw a swing from a morning low of 9.53 to 10.31, settling in the low 10s. A sporadic burst to the 12/13s is not a stretch, as the sp'500 now has four downside gaps to fill/tag.
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As for Powell...

As I noted some time ago, does it really matter who is leading Print Central? Regardless of who leads, we know more printing is coming, and eventually, the serious threat they'll move to negative rates to inspire demand in the 'consumer based economy'.

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