Thanksgiving break

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp -1.9pts at 2597. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 9.88. Near term outlook offers some cooling, with a basic target of sp'2589/82. More broadly, the 2640/50s appear probable before year end.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, with two notable new index historic highs in the Nasdaq comp' and R2K. There was a touch of weakness in the afternoon.

Volatility broke a new cycle low of 9.32, and settled in the upper 9s. A little burst to the 11/12s would not be a surprise. More broadly though, the key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year. We've not seen a year without VIX >20 since 2005.
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A windswept November's late afternoon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

For my American readers out there... Happy Thanksgiving. To the rest of you.... enjoy the day off.

Goodnight from London
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The 2600s

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts at 2599 (intra high 2601). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.0%. VIX settled -8.6% at 9.73. Near term outlook offers subdued price action across pre-Thanksgiving Wednesday and the Friday half-session. The original year end target of 2683 is just about within range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built broad gains into the afternoon. There was a quartet of new index hist' highs in the sp'500, nasdaq comp', dow, and r2K. Market volatility was naturally ground lower, with the VIX settling lower for a fourth consecutive day in the mid 9s.


The original year end target of 2683...

Today's high of 2601 was just 82pts (3.2%) shy of my original target, a number that was derided by everyone at the start of the year.
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The real irony of today was Goldman...

If commodities break upward (look for CRB >197s), then 3k will be seen within spring 2018. But hey, few want to hear that.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

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... but you won't. Click back to zerohedge.com or cnbc.com, as fast as you can.

A little chop

US equity indexes closed on the positive side, sp +3pts at 2582. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -6.8% at 10.65. Near term outlook offers a little cooling to 2572/64, but with a secure low of 2557. More broadly, the 2600s remain on the menu.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the Thanksgiving/holiday week on a fractionally weak note, but leaned a little higher into the mid afternoon. The closing hour saw some fractional cooling, as a moderate down wave to 2572/64 is due. Broadly though, it should be clear, the 2600s are still on the menu before year end.

Market volatility was ground lower for a third day, with the VIX settling in the mid 10s. A brief pop to the 12s is probable, but even the 13s look a stretch at any point this week. As things are, this looks to be a year where the VIX won't break the key 20 threshold, and we've not seen that since since 2005.

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Goodnight from London
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