A sporadic drop

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -9pts at 2584 (intra low 2566). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +7.4% at 10.50. Near term outlook offers some weak chop, but nothing sustained <2560. Broadly, nothing has changed, as the 2600s are due into Thanksgiving.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, saw a bounce in the 10am hour, but with some sporadic 'spooky news' about the Senate possibly delaying a corp' tax reduction until 2019, the market resumed back lower. There was a distinct latter day recovery, with most indexes only settling moderately lower.

Market volatility picked up, but even the intra day high of 12.19 is still to be seen as broadly subdued. Despite today, the key 20 threshold still looks out of range for the remainder of the year. Its notable that whilst front month VIX was sig' higher, further out months were only a touch higher. The 'big money' does not expect significantly higher volatility before year end.
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Bonus chart: Japan, Nikkei, daily

I thought the Japanese market merited highlighting, after the Thursday session saw a wild swing from 23382 to 22522. The daily candle is one of rather severe 'indecision'. Further, on any basis, the Nikkei is short term cyclically overbought, although that could have been argued since mid September. The Oct' settlement >21k is what matters, and it offers next soft target of 25/26k in 2018.
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Moderate chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2594. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -1.1% at 9.78. Near term outlook still offers 'natural' target of 2560 with VIX 11s. More broadly, the year end target of 2683 remains within range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, saw a floor around 12pm from sp'2585, and then clawed upward across the afternoon to 2595.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling in the upper 9s. A burst to the low 11s remains due, and that would equate to at least sp'2570, if not '60. The key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for the rest of the year.
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A chilly afternoon sunset

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A little weak

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -0.5pts at 2590 (intra high 2597). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.2% respectively. VIX settled +5.2% at 9.89. Near term outlook offers moderate weakness to sp'2560, which should equate to VIX 11s (ohh, the drama!).


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities started the day on a positive note, with a trio of new historic highs in the sp', dow, and nasdaq comp'. There was a soft reversal around 9.50am, and then the market broadly cooled into the late afternoon. There was a closing hour mini ramp, but another wave lower to around 2560 seems very probable within the next day or two.

Market volatility opened fractionally lower, climbed to the 10s, but settling in the mid 9s. We're not going to see the VIX above the key 20 threshold before year end, are we? Indeed, we've not see a year without VIX >20 since 2005, and its reflective of just how confident the US/world capital markets are.
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To the APRN and SNAP holders, ohh, and Bill 'no stops' Ackman... the following is for you..


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