Prime target reached

US equities ended the month on a positive note, sp +14pts at 2471. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and 1.0% respectively. VIX settled -5.6% at 10.59. Near term outlook offers minor weak-chop into the 3 day holiday weekend. Sept/Oct' offers a 4-5% downwave to the sp'2350s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and much like yesterday, clawed upward. The key gap zone of 2462/68 was fully filled, and we even broken into the mid 2470s. There was something of a subtle reaction from 2475 in the closing hour. Near term outlook offers a gap fill of 2462/57 within 1-3 days. Things only get interesting with a break under the Aug'21st low of 2417.

With equities rising, volatility was ground lower for a second day, with the VIX settling the month in the mid 10s. A surge to the key 20 threshold looks highly probable within Sept/Oct'.
--


As for August...

sp'monthly

A fifth consecutive net monthly gain, with a notable new historic high of 2490. Unquestionably, the current remains outright bullish. From tomorrow onward, the key 10MA will be somewhere within the 2390s. A September close under it would merit alarm bells. We shall see.
--

... and the sun sets on August

--
Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Thoughts on Sept-Oct

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts at 2457. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -4.1% at 11.22. Near term outlook offers a little chop, but prime target of sp'2462 remains due before the long weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but then quickly reversed upward, as it became a case of algo-bot upward melt. The sp' saw a high of 2460.31, still a notable 2pts shy of prime target, which remains a 'technical necessity'. Thursday offers weak chop, with another viable wave upward on Friday.

Market volatility was subdued, with the VIX briefly breaking into the 10s, and settling in the low 11s. Another surge in the VIX seems due within a week or two, although the key 20 threshold looks far more viable in October.
--


Thoughts on Sept-Oct

The 3 day holiday weekend will soon be here, and my thoughts are already stretching ahead to what is the 'delicate period' of Sept-October. There is already the usual crashy talk from the usual suspects, whilst most others are just expecting a 5% correction, before pushing upward into spring 2018. As things are, I'm with the latter.

The following is something a fair few others have noticed, and are seeking to play out by mid October.

sp'daily5b - H/S

Effectively, near term maxing out within the 2460/70s, then a week or two of chop, and eventually breaking the neckline, the key low of 2417, and declining to the 2350s. In the scheme of things, such a wave would only be moderately exciting, but it'd make for at least a couple of trades.

Things only turn outright bearish with a monthly close under the 10MA. Currently that is in the sp'2350s, and will jump to the 2380/90s for Sept', and 2410/20s in Oct. Keep in mind the R2K has been leading the way lower, followed by the NYSE comp'.

A Sept' or October close under the monthly 10MA would merit alarm bells, and offer a 20% down wave. Right now, I do NOT expect such a monthly close.
--

Hyper bullish sunsets

--
Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Sporadic spooky news

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +2pts at 2446. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled +3.4% at 11.70. Near term outlook still offers a hit of prime target of 2462, before high probability of a 4-5% down wave in Sept/Oct.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Sporadic 'spooky news' - as I like to call it, will always be a problem to the equity bulls. Yesterday afternoon (around 5pm EST), saw a missile launched from North Korea, flying over Japan, and landing somewhere in the western pacific.

Will things spiral out of control in east Asia this Sept/Oct? Or will the DPRK continue to play their little games? Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether Trump will just decide to launch an all out pre-emptive strike. Perhaps you remember what the Chinese leadership said recently?
--


As for the US equity market, we saw an opening low of sp'2428, notably filling the gap zone from August 22nd. The key low of 2417 comfortably held (including overnight futures trading - with a low equiv' to 2422). There was a notable reversal from the open, and the market battled upward all the way into the close.

Market volatility jumped, with a pre-market high of 14.34, opening at 13.33, but then cooling across the day, settling in the 11s. Near term outlook still offers the sp'2462/68 zone, which should equate to VIX 10s.
--

No sunset for the equity bears

--
Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me. For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html