Thoughts on Sept-Oct

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts at 2457. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -4.1% at 11.22. Near term outlook offers a little chop, but prime target of sp'2462 remains due before the long weekend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but then quickly reversed upward, as it became a case of algo-bot upward melt. The sp' saw a high of 2460.31, still a notable 2pts shy of prime target, which remains a 'technical necessity'. Thursday offers weak chop, with another viable wave upward on Friday.

Market volatility was subdued, with the VIX briefly breaking into the 10s, and settling in the low 11s. Another surge in the VIX seems due within a week or two, although the key 20 threshold looks far more viable in October.
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Thoughts on Sept-Oct

The 3 day holiday weekend will soon be here, and my thoughts are already stretching ahead to what is the 'delicate period' of Sept-October. There is already the usual crashy talk from the usual suspects, whilst most others are just expecting a 5% correction, before pushing upward into spring 2018. As things are, I'm with the latter.

The following is something a fair few others have noticed, and are seeking to play out by mid October.

sp'daily5b - H/S

Effectively, near term maxing out within the 2460/70s, then a week or two of chop, and eventually breaking the neckline, the key low of 2417, and declining to the 2350s. In the scheme of things, such a wave would only be moderately exciting, but it'd make for at least a couple of trades.

Things only turn outright bearish with a monthly close under the 10MA. Currently that is in the sp'2350s, and will jump to the 2380/90s for Sept', and 2410/20s in Oct. Keep in mind the R2K has been leading the way lower, followed by the NYSE comp'.

A Sept' or October close under the monthly 10MA would merit alarm bells, and offer a 20% down wave. Right now, I do NOT expect such a monthly close.
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Hyper bullish sunsets

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Goodnight from London
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Sporadic spooky news

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +2pts at 2446. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled +3.4% at 11.70. Near term outlook still offers a hit of prime target of 2462, before high probability of a 4-5% down wave in Sept/Oct.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Sporadic 'spooky news' - as I like to call it, will always be a problem to the equity bulls. Yesterday afternoon (around 5pm EST), saw a missile launched from North Korea, flying over Japan, and landing somewhere in the western pacific.

Will things spiral out of control in east Asia this Sept/Oct? Or will the DPRK continue to play their little games? Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether Trump will just decide to launch an all out pre-emptive strike. Perhaps you remember what the Chinese leadership said recently?
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As for the US equity market, we saw an opening low of sp'2428, notably filling the gap zone from August 22nd. The key low of 2417 comfortably held (including overnight futures trading - with a low equiv' to 2422). There was a notable reversal from the open, and the market battled upward all the way into the close.

Market volatility jumped, with a pre-market high of 14.34, opening at 13.33, but then cooling across the day, settling in the 11s. Near term outlook still offers the sp'2462/68 zone, which should equate to VIX 10s.
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No sunset for the equity bears

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Goodnight from London
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Leaning upward

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +1pt at 2444. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. VIX settled +0.3% at 11.32. Near term outlook offers prime target of sp'2462, before high probability of a key lower high into the 'delicate period' of Sept/Oct.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher, and then just saw minor chop across the day. Its also a little apparent that some traders are already slipping into pre-holiday mood, and that leans in favour to the bulls. A few instances of algo-bot upside melt is very probable this week.

Market volatility opened a little weak, spiked to the low 12s, but settled just a little higher. The sp'2462/68 zone should equate to VIX 10s. The 9s look a stretch, although its not like we've not seen those regularly this year!
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Here in the metropolis...

The UK was largely closed today, with a late summer 'bank holiday'. Yours truly was naturally still typing, and is most certainly looking forward to Labor day next Monday :)  I just wish the US had more public holidays than the UK, its one of the downsides to living/working US hours/days.

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Goodnight from London
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