Leaning toward 2435

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts at 2472. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.6% at 10.44. Near term outlook still offers a brief washout to sp'2435, before a far better opportunity to push upward into the 2500s by September.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, and it ended up being just another day of minor chop. There was notable weakness in the R2K, which declined for the 6th day of the past 7.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX again falling into the 9s. Remember how the 9s was seen as 'crazy talk' a year ago, and here we are.. regularly seeing the 9s.. or even the 8s. If sp'2435, then VIX 12s seem briefly probable.
--


The years sure are flying by...

A full decade since the Cramer was warning of trouble for his finance friends and the broader economy.
--

A bearable summer's day.

As ever, extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

Yet another black-fail candle

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +1pt at 2477. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.9% at 10.28. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the upper end of the 2435/25 gap zone. More broadly, the 2500s remain a given by mid September.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and it was enough to see the Dow push above the soft psy' level of 22k, which naturally caught a fair amount of mainstream attention.

Yet, there was an opening reversal, with the sp' cooling to 2466. A latter day recovery saw the sp' close fractionally higher. Note the black fail candle, which is the fourth of the past seven trading days. I can't recall any such previous situation.

Market volatility remains subdued, but the VIX did manage to settled outside of the 9s.

Near term outlook remains entirely unchanged, a brief fall to sp'2435 - with VIX 12s, before resuming upward. It sure is taking longer than expected. The repeated opening reversals and daily black-fail candles are very much supportive of the outlook.

Goodnight from London

Typically sleepy August

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts at 2476. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% at 10.09. Near term outlook still offers a partial gap fill of the sp'2435/25 zone. More broadly, the 2500s are clearly due.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the Dow notably breaking a new historic high, but falling shy of the 22k threshold.The sp'500 settled a little higher, but fractionally below the open, with a settling black-fail candle. Those are not to be dismissed lightly.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX falling into the 9s today, but settling in the low 10s. If sp'2435, that should equate to VIX in the 12s.
--


August is typically sleepy

Aside from 2015 and 2011, August is typically a sleepy month. Europe is effectively on holiday for the entire month, and for many in the US, the equity/capital markets are the last thing on their minds.

Sure, there will be a few 1-2% swings, but broadly, there is little reason to expect any drama until at least mid/late September.

sp'monthly1b

Keep in mind the key 10MA, that has now jumped from 2425 to 2460. Unless we see a break and monthly close under it, there is zero reason for the bears to have any hope.
--

Who wants to buy an overpriced apartment?

Goodnight from London
--