US equity indexes closed moderately mixed sp -1.9pts at 2425 (intra low
2412). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.3%
respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 10.89. Near term outlook offers a break under the recent key
spike lows of 2407/05. Yellen would be the 'natural' excuse.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
The equity market opened fractionally weak, some chop, but then a very sharp snap lower on the 'spooky news' that Trump JR issued an email-chain. From sp'2412, a standard latter day recovery, squeezing out the equity bears into the close.
Market volatility remained broadly subdued, briefly seeing 12.14 with the 'Trump JR' equity drop. Its going to take a break under sp'2405 to see VIX back in the teens.
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Coincidence, or ZH just copying me?
Yesterday's post (4.19pm EST)
Today (3.06PM EST) on Zerohedge...
Come to your own conclusions. It remains a kooky irony that I'm BLOCKED by Zerohedge on Twitter. One of the 'Tylers' no doubt got pissed at something I said a few years ago.
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The 'Yellen' excuse
Wednesday morning (8.30am) will see the Fed issue a press release of prepared remarks by Yellen to the US house. The fed chair will appear at 10am, and will last 2-3 hours, and no doubt receive blanket coverage on clown finance TV.
Its not so much what Yellen has to say, as whether the market will use her appearance as the excuse to break significantly lower (or higher).
Recent price action has been very choppy, with a short term series of lower highs. If the bears can break <sp'2405, the door will open to another 2-3%. The bigger weekly cycles support the notion of a break lower. Such a drop to the 2350/25 zone would effectively then become the 5% retrace that many have been seeking since late 2016.
A suggestion...
When Yellen begins testifying to the US house tomorrow, hit the play button on this.
I think it'll sync up rather well with some fedspeak. I'd imagine the above scene is much how it is inside the Federal reserve... which sure ain't federal, and has no reserves.. other than those it has purchased with money created out of nothing.
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US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts at 2427 (intra high
2432). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.2%
respectively. VIX settled -0.7% at 11.11. Near term outlook offers a sig' wave lower to challenge
the recent low of sp'2405. A break <2400 would offer another 2-3%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
The US market opened in minor chop mode, and slowly clawed upward to 2432.00 in the closing hour. There was some cooling into the close, with the two leaders closing moderately lower. Its notable that the Transports broke a new historic high, which by default.. made it just another day for the bulls.
Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX opening moderately higher, but settling lower for a second consecutive day. Upper daily bollinger offers the 12s in the near term. Things only get 'interesting' if sp <2405.. which would likely equate to VIX 14/15s.
Tomorrow might be somewhat interesting, but the issue for this week is how the market will cope with Yellen, econ-data, and some earnings.
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Meanwhile in Venezuela
... if the original poster is to be believed, this is a recent glimpse of Venezuela. Its a magnificent example of what happens when you drive out free market capitalism, and replace it will militarised communism.
Keep in mind that the UK's likely next prime minister - Corbyn, thinks Chavez is someone to admire.
It was a mixed week for US equity indexes,
with net weekly changes ranging from +1.4%
(Transports), +0.1% (sp'500), to
-0.1% (NYSE comp'). Near term outlook leans on the weaker side, but the mid/long term trends are comfortably intact. The year end target of sp'2683 remains on track.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
First, its notable we are net higher for the 8th of the past 9 months. Underlying MACD (blue histogram) is ticking a little lower, but price momentum is still outright bullish. Even if the market cooled from current levels, a bearish cross would be unlikely until at least October. Best guess: near term weakness, but no more than 3% to around 2350, as earnings and econ-data continue to come in 'reasonable'. The 2500s seem probable by September, and the year end target of 2683 looks very realistic, as the fed should raise rates at least once more.
Note the key 10MA, currently at 2321, and rising by around 25pts a month. Unless we see a monthly settlement under that, equity bears (especially the crash-calling type) need to stay mute.
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Nasdaq comp'
The Nasdaq saw a new historic high of 6341 in June, which is a monstrous gain of 50.6% since the Feb'2016 low of 4209. At the current rate, the Nasdaq comp' will be around 10k by late 2018. Near term is a touch weak, not least after the strong intraday downward swing of June 9th. Underlying MACD is ticking lower, but a bearish cross looks very unlikely before year end. Indeed, the 7000s seem a valid target, so long as earnings and econ-data continue to come in reasonable.
Dow
The mighty Dow is broadly super strong, and its notable we have recently seen a new historic high of 21562. The key 10MA is now above the giant psy' level of 20k, in the 20300s. By Sept' it will offer strong support around 21k.
Upper bollinger is offering the 22100s for July/August earnings. If by some miracle the market breaks support, then first target would the lower bollinger.. currently around 16k, and that is a clear 5000pts lower.
NYSE comp'
The master index is broadly climbing, having broken a new historic high of 11869. The 10MA is now in the 11300s, which look out of range in the near term. A move into the 12000s seems a given this summer.
R2K
The second market leader - R2K, came very close this week to breaking a new historic high. There is threat of near term weakness, but nothing more than 3-4%. Mid term trend looks comfortably secure. Just consider that the R2K has climbed a monstrous 52.1% since the Feb'2016 low. Upper bollinger is offering the 1500s in the near term.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Transports, ended this week on the ultimate bullish note, with a new historic high of 9704. Clearly, mid term subdued WTIC/fuel prices will especially help the transportation stocks. The key 10MA is in the 9100s, and unless that is broken and settled under, the equity bulls have nothing to be concerned about. The giant 10k threshold does look highly probable by mid September.
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Summary
All US equity indexes remain within their mid term upward trends from early 2016.
The Nasdaq is generally leading the market, both to the upside.. and recently, the downside.
Most indexes have around 5% of downside buffer before core trend is tested.
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Looking ahead
A busy week is ahead. There is some key econ-data, and we have Fed chair Yellen making two appearances, which will no doubt receive considerable media coverage.
M - Consumer credit (3pm)
T - Wholesale trade
W - Yellen - US House (10am), EIA Pet' report, Fed Beige book (2pm)
T - Yellen - US Senate (10am), weekly jobs, PPI
F - CPI, retail sales, indust' prod', bus' invent', consumer sent'.
*in addition to Yellen, there are six scheduled appearances from other fed officials, notably George (Wed'), who will be discussing the economic outlook and the fed's balance sheet.
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If you value my work, subscribe to me.
Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.
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Notable video update from Walker
This is monstrously long, but its high quality and valid analysis.
Yours truly has thought about making some chart-videos lately, but I'm already putting in 45/55 hour weeks, and I'm frankly... too gods damn tired to do much more.
