A mixed week

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +15pts at 2425. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. VIX settled -10.8% at 11.19. Near term outlook still offers a break under the 2400 threshold, as weekly price momentum increasingly favours the bears.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built gains into the afternoon. Its notable that the 'old leader' - Transports, broke a new historic high of 9704. Unlike a fair few recent occasions, there was no cooling into the close.

With the jobs data being seen as 'goldilocks', market volatility broadly cooled, settling in the low 11s, although that still made for a second consecutive net weekly gain.. if only fractional.
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... just another summer's day

As ever, extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the US monthly indexes

Settling under the 50dma

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -22pts at 2409. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +13.3% at 12.54. Near term outlook offers a break under the sp'2400 threshold, with a subsequent washout around 2352/48.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, and despite some sporadic minor attempts to recover, the bears managed to restrain things. The closing hour was distinctly weak.. and that has been the case a fair few times recently. The daily close under the 50dma is pretty bearish. Even if tomorrow opens higher on 'goldilocks' jobs data, the market will still be inclined for another rollover into the weekend.

Market volatility is picking up (intra high 13.05), with the VIX managing a daily close in the mid 12s.
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A broader view - sp'weekly

Note the black-fail candle from two weeks ago, those are very rare on the weekly/monthly cycles. We've seen that candle confirmed, with what is set to be a second consecutive net weekly decline. Rising trend - that stretches back to Feb'2016, will offer powerful support around 2350 next week.
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Storm clouds building

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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A mixed day of chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2432. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -1.3% at 11.07. Near term outlook offers weakness to at least test the recent low of sp'2405. Any break <2400 will offer a bonus washout to the partly unfilled gap of 2352/48.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, swung moderately lower, but by early afternoon were back to fractionally positive. It certainly didn't rank as exciting.

Cyclically, the short term setup favours the equity bears, especially via the more important weekly cycle. A daily close <sp'2400 looks a stretch this week, but a move <2405 looks more viable than a break to new historic highs (>2453).

Market volatility was choppy, seeing an early high of 12.03, but settling in the low 11s. Any equity break <2400 should see VIX jump to at least match the recent high of 15.16. If sp'2350/40s, then the key 20 threshold will be briefly viable.
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Moon rise... 2.20pm EST

As ever, extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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