A bounce day

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts at 2440. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. VIX settled -9.3% at 10.03. Near term outlook offers another wave lower, at least to partly fill the gap zone of 2428/19. Many stocks - such as AAPL, are still highly suggestive of more significant downside to 2400/2390s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built rather strong gains into the early afternoon.

I recognise that some won't be calling today a bounce, and will instead now be seeking a straight run to new historic highs into early July. Its notable that the R2K did come very close to breaking a new historic high today.

With equities on the rise, market volatilty was crushed, with the VIX falling back into the 9s (intra low 9.76), but settling in the 10s.

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

Short term downside break

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -19pts at 2419. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +11.7% at 11.06. Near term outlook offers the 2415/10 zone. Some stocks - such as AAPL, are highly suggestive of the sp'2390s before resuming upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little lower, saw a fair amount of chop, but ended the day broadly weak. The break of soft support of sp'2431/30 was somewhat important, and offers further downside Wed-Thursday. Some stocks - such as AAPL, are highly suggestive that the Nasdaq will fall around 4% within 1-4 days, which would likely equate to sp'2405/2390s.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, but we did see the VIX settle in the 11s today. The 12s look a given, the only issue is whether we get stuck in the 13s or 14s. 

As ever, extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Almost halfway

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.7pts at 2439 (intra high 2450). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 9.90. Near term outlook offers 2420/15 zone. More broadly, the 2500s still appear viable as early as late July, not least if Q2 GDP comes in >2.5%.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a moderately positive note, but there was a rather fierce little reversal in early morning, with most indexes turning red. With WTIC swinging upward from -0.7% to +0.7% in the $43s, equities saw a little bounce into the afternoon. Again, there was something of closing hour weakness.. which should carry into Tuesday. Further, the black-fail candle is a warning of trouble.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling in the upper 9s. Near term offers the 12/13s, if sp'2420/15, which really isn't that bold a target.


Half of 2017

This Friday will be the end of Q2 and indeed, the first half of 2017. Regardless of how the rest of this week trades, so far, its been a year for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in all six of the indexes I regularly highlight.

However, even more notable than the equity gains are how commodities have been relentlessly weak.

CRB, monthly, 8yr

At the current rate, we'll see the CRB at the Jan'2016 lows within 3-4 months. Does the fed notice... or remotely care? At some point this summer/autumn, commodities are going to see another upswing, and that will be bullish for energy and most resource/mining stocks, which of course will help kick the main market upward.

Goodnight from London
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