Another set of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +10pts at 2415 (intra high 2418). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.3% at 9.99. Near term outlook offers a little cooling to 2409/04. Any sustained price action under 2400 now looks unlikely.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So much for any weakness ahead of the Memorial day break, as we saw new historic highs for the sp'500 and Nasdaq comp'. Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX once again cooling into the 9s.

I'm well aware of some of the very bearish chatter out. A fair few are touting a decline to around the 200dma. That will be in the sp'2270s in early June, and is clear 5% lower. Is it possible? Sure, but just what excuse could the market use to see that kind of down wave?

Other than something 'nuclear' in North Korea... I can't think of anything.
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Podcast from Coffey and Dr J.

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Just another sunny evening in the city.

Goodnight from London
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A day of minor chop

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +5pts at 2404. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. VIX settled -6.5% at 10.02. Near term outlook still offers a sig' wave lower, at least to test the 50dma in the 2370s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened fractionally higher, and there were signs of a reversal from the opening bell, yet.. the sellers never appeared in even a moderate degree. Instead, it was a day of very minor chop. The press release from the Fed at 2pm saw a few minor swings, but leaning on the upside. The closing hour almost saw a new historic high, with the sp'500 just 0.19pts shy.

Market volatility continued to melt lower, with the VIX briefly seeing the 9s. The key 20 threshold looks as far away as ever.

Next Monday is CLOSED, and on balance, Friday will lean to the quieter side, as many will make an early escape for the weekend. The better opportunity for the equity bears will be tomorrow, or next Tuesday. Keep in mind the monthly close is next Wednesday.
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The summer continues

Goodnight from London
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Still set for a swing lower

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts at 2398 (intra high 2400). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 10.72. Near term outlook offers a sig' wave lower to the sp'2340s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A fourth consecutive net daily gain for the sp', having fully filled the gap from last Wednesday. The psy' level of 2400 is a clear resistance threshold. The 50dma is 2370, with the lower bollinger at 2367.. those are the first soft targets within 1-2 days.

Market volatility was ground lower for a fourth day, with the VIX stuck in the 10s. Cyclically, we're due a bearish MACD cross within 1-2 days, but my guess is that instead we'll see a powerful surge in the VIX.. back to the 15/16s.
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Another piece of my childhood has gone...




I was always a fan of the bond intro' themes.
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After yesterday night's event in Manchester, today's warm sunshine was a welcome relief.

Goodnight from London
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