A day of minor chop

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +5pts at 2404. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. VIX settled -6.5% at 10.02. Near term outlook still offers a sig' wave lower, at least to test the 50dma in the 2370s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened fractionally higher, and there were signs of a reversal from the opening bell, yet.. the sellers never appeared in even a moderate degree. Instead, it was a day of very minor chop. The press release from the Fed at 2pm saw a few minor swings, but leaning on the upside. The closing hour almost saw a new historic high, with the sp'500 just 0.19pts shy.

Market volatility continued to melt lower, with the VIX briefly seeing the 9s. The key 20 threshold looks as far away as ever.

Next Monday is CLOSED, and on balance, Friday will lean to the quieter side, as many will make an early escape for the weekend. The better opportunity for the equity bears will be tomorrow, or next Tuesday. Keep in mind the monthly close is next Wednesday.
--

The summer continues

Goodnight from London
--

Still set for a swing lower

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts at 2398 (intra high 2400). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 10.72. Near term outlook offers a sig' wave lower to the sp'2340s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A fourth consecutive net daily gain for the sp', having fully filled the gap from last Wednesday. The psy' level of 2400 is a clear resistance threshold. The 50dma is 2370, with the lower bollinger at 2367.. those are the first soft targets within 1-2 days.

Market volatility was ground lower for a fourth day, with the VIX stuck in the 10s. Cyclically, we're due a bearish MACD cross within 1-2 days, but my guess is that instead we'll see a powerful surge in the VIX.. back to the 15/16s.
--


Another piece of my childhood has gone...




I was always a fan of the bond intro' themes.
--

After yesterday night's event in Manchester, today's warm sunshine was a welcome relief.

Goodnight from London
--

Inclined to lean weak

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +12pts at 2394 (intra high 2395). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -9.2% at 10.93. Near term outlook offers renewed weakness, with a primary target of sp'2348 and Nasdaq comp'5910. More broadly... nothing has changed, as the 2600s appear highly probable before year end.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day for the equity bulls, as the recovery that began Thursday morning from sp'2352 continued. Its notable that today's high of 2395 was a mere 10pts shy of last week's historic high. Market volatility was naturally still continuing to cool, with the VIX falling back into the 10s.

Despite today, near term outlook remains unchanged.The US market will be cyclically inclined to increasingly lean weak..
--


Katie agrees with yours truly

Watching the breakfast show on clown finance TV this morning (I rarely do), there was an appearence from Katie Stockton. Her outlook was effectively the same as I hold. Short term weakness to around sp'2340, but broader mid term upside to 2640 (my year end target is 2683).

I would refer anyone who didn't read my weekend post to go look.
--

Summer arrives.. finally.

--

It has indeed happened again. After a wait of 25 years, season'3 of Twin Peaks began last night on Showtime.


--
As ever... extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--