Pre-opex washout

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -43pts at 2357. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -3.1% and -2.8% respectively. VIX settled +46.4% at 15.59. Near term outlook offers renewed upside into the opex/weekly close. Sporadic (and brief) washouts are to be expected, in what remains a powerful upward trend.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Based on cyclical issues yesterday, I had expected the market to cool to sp'2393/90 this morning. Yet overnight 'Trump' chatter gave the HFT algo-bot's the excuse to washout much lower. The break into the gap zone of 2370/48 is a surprise, as that genuinely seemed to have become one of those rare 'breakaway gaps'.

Market volatility naturally jumped, with the VIX soaring into the mid teens, settling at the high of day in the brief 15mins of AH trading. Today's candle does look rather insane. Its notable that we've filled the big gap zone to the mid 14s
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A somewhat random news item, but it caught my attention...

So, according to the NY Fed, Q1 household debt has finally surpassed the pre-crash peak of 2008. Congrats to the American consumer, yes? This is a good sign of the underlying strength of the economy, right?
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Podcast from Coffey and Dr J'



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Will 'normal service' resume?

Broadly though, nothing has changed. We'll continue to occasionally see sporadic 0.25%, 0.5%, even 1-2% washouts, but the equity bears still won't likely be able to muster anything sustained. The underlying bid for equities (not least from the central banks) remains 'scary strong'.

I'll be the first one to sound alarm bells if the mid term trends are broken, and right now, that is still around 4% lower. I can't see that happening any time soon, can you?

Goodnight from London
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*extra charts in AH (usually after 8pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Reading around

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt at 2400 (intra high 2405). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +2.2% at 10.65. Near term outlook offers brief cooling to 2393/90. More broadly, a May settlement in the 2410/20s remains well within range.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in the Nasdaq comp' and sp'500. Some cooling to 2393/90 zone looks due, before choppy upside into this Friday's opex.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX firmly stuck sub-teens. Does anyone seriously think we'll see the VIX >20 this summer? There is simply no threat of it, other than via something 'nuclear' in Asia.
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Reading around

I read around far less than I used to. As you might realise, I'm writing a great deal, and I just don't have the free time that I used to. I do however make a point of periodically browsing most of the sites/blogs I have listed on this very page.

I am still seeing a lack of capitulation. There are some notable names whom the market has yet to break. A number of infamous sites/blogs need to disappear before Mr Market is arguably satisfied. I could name names... but you can probably guess the ones I am thinking of.

Yours truly will remain bullish until the mid term trends in both the US - and most other world markets, have been broken and closed under. That looks at least 3-4 months away, if not spring 2018.

Goodnight from London
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Nasdaq still leading the way

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts at 2402 (new historic high 2404). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% at 10.42. Near term outlook offers a touch of weakness to 2393/90, before resuming upward to the 2420/30s into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week on a moderately positive note. Short term price structure does threaten a baby bull flag, which offers the sp'2410/20s.. but a swing lower to 2393/90 seems a given, before renewed upside. In the scheme of things though.. its all minor moves. The important point is that the US market is still broadly pushing upward.

Market volatility remains very low, with the VIX firmly stuck sub-teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least late September.
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Nasdaq comp', monthly

A new historic high of 6153, with the 6200s just about in range before end month. The trend is bullish, right?

Goodnight from London
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