Naturally choppy

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts at 2361. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -0.9% at 11.42. Near term outlook offers threat of Thursday moderate weakness, before a swing upward into the monthly/Q1 close.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of minor chop for US equities. This was natural, as the smaller 60/15min cycles were on the high side, whilst at the same time, the bigger daily cycle, is seeing price momentum swing back to the equity bulls. The remainder of the week/month can be expected to be mostly 'more of the same'.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX settling net lower for a third consecutive day. It was particularly notable in early morning that with sp' -5pts, the VIX had already turned fractionally red! The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least late April.
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Here in London city...

Moody skies as the sun sets on the UK being part of the EU. In many ways though, I don't expect that much to change, as the political/societal elite never wanted to leave anyway. For some though, the removal of the right to live and work in other parts of Europe will be a truly great loss.

Goodnight from London
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Broad equity gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts at 2358. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -7.8% at 11.53. Near term outlook offers a fair amount of chop into end month. More broadly, the 2425/50 zone is on the menu for late April/early May.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The market opened in minor chop mode, but with no downside power, it was just a matter of time before equities built rather broad gains. The net daily gains give high confidence that sp'2322 is a key short term low. In theory, the market should battle upward to the 2425/50 zone by late April/early May.

Volatility was naturally continuing to cool, with the VIX already cooling back into the 11s. The 10s are clearly due, with the 9s viable if the bulls have a case of mild hysteria within 3-5 weeks.
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Here in the metropolis...

Sundown.. 2.20pm EST.

It was another reasonable spring day. More importantly - for those in the northern hemisphere, we're another day closer to summer warmth, which I really am bullish about.

Don't forget, extra charts in the late evening via https://twitter.com/permabear_uk   Any retweets guarantee citizenship*

Goodnight from London
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Reversing upward

US equity indexes closed on a slightly mixed note, sp -2pts at 2341 (intra low 2322). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. VIX settled -3.5% at 12.50. Near term outlook offers upside to 2360/70 into end month. Broader upside to 2425/50 seems a given by late April/early May.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, but there was a rather clear reversal underway within minutes. There just aren't many willing sellers at these levels. The sp' daily candle was a classic hollow red reversal.. managing to close above the key 50dma. Its a rather bullish sign.

VIX saw a pre-market print of 15.11, but only managed 14.82 in early trading, and was then ground lower across the day. For much of the day, the daily candle was of the black-fail type, but even managed to turn outright red. The volatility bulls really should be concerned!

On balance.. the market looks prone to battling upward into late April/early May.
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This evening's movie...

Mr Fuzzy Bear is always watching - The Wolf of Wall Street (2013).

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Goodnight from London
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