Twitchy market

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2345. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled +2.4% at 13.12. Near term outlook offers high threat of a test of the 50dma, which will be around 2330 early Friday morning. Broadly though, another push into the 2400s looks a given into April earnings.


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VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a pretty choppy day in equity land, as the market was naturally twitchy due to the looming healthcare bill. There was some distinct weakness into the close, with the spiky daily candle suggestive of further weakness on Friday. On balance, no sustained price action under the 50dma.

VIX saw an intra high 13.17, as today was the first time we've seen the 13s in 'normal trading' since Jan'19th. Clearly, if the main market opens sharply lower tomorrow morning, 14s will be due... 15s on a stretch.
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As for the healthcare bill

I'm pretty much a cheerleader for Trump... and was one of those few people who foresaw his presidency a long... long time ago. Yet even Trump is entirely failing to address the core problem within American healthcare.

Denniger of 'Market Ticker' has droned on about this issue for many years, and I shall merely refer you to any of his recent articles on the matter.   See http://market-ticker.org

Spring sunset.. 2.20pm EST

I'm refraining from making any comments on yesterday's madness in the city. Suffice to add... this afternoon's sunshine was something of a relief.

Goodnight from London
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Battling to bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2348 (intra low 2336). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +2.7% at 12.81. Near term outlook offers high threat of a test of the 50dma.. which will soon be around 2330.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities: an intra low of 2336, but then a rather typical latter day recovery, with a minor gain. There is huge overhead resistance within the 2380/90 zone. It seems very viable that the market could see another wave lower to test the rising 50dma, before a realistic opportunity to break/clear >2390.

VIX: The print of 13.16 was actually seen in pre-market. Stockcharts (and I guess most other charting software) now generally include pre-market, and the 15mins of AH price action, as part of each daily candle. In any case... the VIX is still reflective of a broadly confident capital market.

*for some extra charts/chatter later this evening, see https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Go take a Valium

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -29pts at 2344. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a very significant -1.9% and -2.7% respectively. VIX settled +10.0% to 12.47. With the break <2350, near term outlook offers a test of the key 50dma, which will soon be in the 2330s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today was admittedly something of a surprise, seeing the most dynamic downward action (for most indexes) since Sept'9th 2016. It was a fourth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500, the most bearish run since late January, back when the sp' was battling against the 2300 threshold.

Cyclically, we're on the low end, and the equity bears are going to struggle to achieve any daily closes under the 50dma.. which is still rising, and will soon be in the sp'2330s.

Market volatility certainly picked up today, with the VIX seeing an opening classic hollow red reversal candle (hourly cycle, not shown).. and then quickly climbing. Despite sig' equity weakness, the VIX still couldn't see the low teens today, and it remains reflective of underlying capital market confidence.


Need a Valium?

Browsing around twitter and various blogs today, I am already starting to see borderline bearish hysteria. The top calling maniacs are at it again.

Lets be clear, the mid term bullish trends from the key lows in early 2016 remain FULLY intact. Nothing changes unless we're trading under the monthly 10MA - currently at sp'2216, although that number will naturally increase each month. For the moment, if you're feeling excited that the grand rally from 2009 is complete, I would suggest go take a Valium, or something. 

Goodnight from London
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