Are you surprised?

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +32pts at 2395. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.9% respectively. VIX settled -2.9% at 12.54. Near term outlook offers a weekly close in the low 2400s, with the 2500s within range this May/June.


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Summary

Surprised, are you?

Yesterday's closing technical setup (short term) was on the low side. Even if this morning opened lower, the market would have seen some degree of latter day recovery.

Instead, the most bullish scenario occurred, with the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s.. levels that most thought insanely 'bold' just a few months ago.

Yet.. here we are..... with a super strong equity market... not just in the US.. but across much of the world.
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Ohh, and the following skies are most appropriate for those still trying to short this market...

I could say a lot more... but for now. .that will suffice.

Goodnight from London
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For those with an interest in the precious metals/miners...

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

The State of the Union

US equities ended the month on a slightly weak note, sp -6pts at 2363. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.4% respectively. VIX settled +6.9% at 12.92. Near term outlook is bullish, as another burst higher seems due before a realistic threat of a sustained move lower.


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Summary

It was a day of minor weakness for the US equity market, as reflected in the VIX which climbed for a second consecutive day. However, its notable that the VIX couldn't see the 13s at all in February... something we've not seen since June 2014.
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As for the SOTU

Tonight's address by President Trump is profoundly important. Its not just a speech to placate or inspire his party or even the broader congress/senate. It will be a speech where Trump will lay it all out.... to the world. The US economy is still struggling, and Trump's core aim will be to increase economic growth, whilst also launching a massive re-building scheme across the nation.

An infrastructure (phase'1) plan will likely total around $1trn. How will it be funded? I've long believed they could do it via a special 'US infrastructure 30/50yr bond'. Ironically, some of those would no doubt eventually find their way into the balance sheets of central banks across the world.
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The monthly close...

It was a very bullish month for the US and most other world equity markets...

 sp'monthly3c

A net monthly gain for the sp'500 of 84pts (3.7%), with a new historic high of 2371. Its been a full year since we saw a bearish red (Elder impulse) candle. I'll cover the US and other world equity markets in depth this coming weekend.
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It was another very mixed day for the Gold Miners. If you're curious to dig deeper, go pick up my first Gold Miner report.

For details: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

Goodnight from London

Starting the week subdued

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +2pts at 2369. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 12.09. Near term outlook offers high threat of a mid term 'euphoria' top... whether inspired via the SOTU, or the SNAP IPO. The wild card remains the energy sector... which is due renewed upside.


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Summary

*notable new (if fractional) historic highs of sp'2371 and Dow 20851.
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The week began on a relatively subdued note, as the equity bears remain powerless, but neither are the bulls especially confident enough to buy big ahead of the SOTU.

For now, VIX remains subdued in the sub-teens, but traders are increasingly picking up March/April call blocks, as some believe the market is close to a key short/mid term top. VIX clearly won't remain at these levels forever.

Something to watch tomorrow - as February comes to a close... can VIX see the 13s? We've not seen the teens at all this month.. which would be the first time since June 2014. Its notable that the following month saw VIX 17s... with a spike high of 31.06 in Oct'. For now though, even the key 20 threshold looks a stretch, even if the market retraces to around sp'2250 by early April.
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Yours truly has been even more busy than usual lately, and is now trying to churn out reports on various sectors. I decided to start with a personal favourite... the Gold Miners.

For details see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/research-reports.html

Goodnight from London