JPM also talking about acceleration

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -2pts at 2347.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% @ 11.76. Near term outlook remains super strong, with the sp'2375/400 zone viable in early March.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but again, that was enough to generate another set of historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and NYSE comp'.

Despite the little equity wave lower in the morning, VIX was still unable to see the low teens. Volatility remains exceptionally subdued, as the US capital market is super confident. That was itself reflected in the latest Phil' fed number of 43.3 - the best number since 1984! It is indeed entirely reflective of the societal/financial shift that has occured with the election of Trump.
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Mainstream talk of acceleration

Yesterday I highlighted the issue of acceleration in the market. Today, the lunchtime show on clown finance TV, saw Hunter of JPM touting much the same...

Indeed, most should recognise that recent price action is an acceleration. Hunter noted the next key level is around sp'2450.

Could we hit sp'2450 before the anticipated main market retrace of 5%? Yes, although even I find it difficult to see the market keep pushing another 5% before a mini washout. Broadly of course.. all such things are irrelevant, as the US - and other world markets, are super strong.

Goodnight from an accelerated London

The bullish train accelerates

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 2349. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled +11.4% @ 11.97. Near term outlook offers nothing to the bears, as underlying price pressure remains 'scary strong'. Next realistic opportunity of a turn is likely no earlier than first week of March, after the President's SOTU speech.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in all six of the main indexes I regularly highlight.

VIX was significantly net higher, but that was almost entirely because front month VIX has rolled from Feb' to March... which is always going to be inherently higher.
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As for the train....

Watching clown finance TV this lunch time, it was particularly amusing to see further talk about how 'higher rates are GOOD'. It never fails to surprise me how the mainstream seem to be oblivious to what they used to say in the recent past.

Remember how last October the talk was about whether the Fed would dare hike at the Dec' FOMC? Of course, the same people never saw a Trump victory, and still seem to have ZERO perspective on the giant breakouts in financials, copper... and a number of other things.

So.. the bullish train continues, and with few willing sellers, underlying price momentum is accelerating. Sure, a 5% retrace is still on the menu this spring, but we're now barely 2% from the 2400s.

Here is a scary thought... the sp'2500s are now roughly 6% away. My end year target of 2683 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?

Goodnight from London

Even Yellen can't spook equities

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts at 2337. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% @ 10.74. Near term outlook threatens another moderate wave lower to around 2312, but broadly... the 2340/50s look due by first week of March.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The market saw some early morning weakness, but once again.. it was nothing of any significance. Yellen spoke about a fair few things, including interest rates and broadly subdued long term economic growth, but it wasn't enough to spook equities.

Indeed, by early afternoon, the US market was already breaking a new set of historic index highs, as whilst there are few buyers.. there are far fewer willing sellers.

Most still fail to see the societal/financial change that has occurred since the election of Trump. Rather than the market focusing on what the fed officials are saying, we're in a new era... one where attention is focused on actual earnings and econ-data. This is a good thing, right?
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I recognise that some of you believe a massive long term high is due to be put in within the near term, but go stare at this for a few minutes...

Brazil, monthly

The implications for the US... and many other world equity markets should be clear by now.

Goodnight from London