20,000 and beyond

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +18pts @ 2298. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. VIX settled -2.3% @ 10.81. Near term outlook offers further upside into the weekend, and probably into the second week of February... to the sp'2320/30s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today was day'2 UP, of what most should now recognise is a new up wave. The 'consolidation in time' phase is complete, and we're already well into new historic territory.

Naturally, the VIX remains subdued. Its almost a little surprising that Dow 20k wasn't enough to see the VIX cool (if briefly) to single digits. We've not seen VIX 9s since Feb'2007.
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Dow 20,000 is only 1pt above 19999, but it IS important.

I see some - such as Armstrong, regularly talk about Dow 23k. I can't disagree with that. Ironically, I'm more interested in some kind of hyper blow-off top to 25/26k.

Dow'monthly3 - fib' extrapolations

Yours truly - like many of you, is battling away in what remains a very twisted market. For now.. only a maniac would try shorting this.

Goodnight from London

The next big push

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +14pts @ 2280. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by a rather significant 1.6%. VIX settled -5.9% @ 11.07. Near term outlook is bullish to Dow 20K and the sp'2300s. Broadly, the market looks strong into mid February.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equity price action is highly suggestive that we're now in the early phase of another big push higher.

The technical setup for ALL the main equity indexes is offering straight up upside into early February. Its notable that the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle will soon be offering the sp'2320s.

Naturally, with equities broadly strong, the VIX remains very subdued. The 10s look due. A valid question is whether Dow 20k - and the sp'2300s, will be enough to see single digit VIX... last seen in Feb'2007... a long... long time ago.

Goodnight from a bullish London

Still stuck in the zone

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2265 (intra low 2257). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +2.0% @ 11.77. Near term outlook offers yet another attempt to break new historic highs. Broadly, the market is vulnerable to the sp'2320s before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week on a moderately weak note, but again... 'moderate' is all the equity bears can manage. After a hyper ramp from sp'2083 to 2277... the bears still can't manage any significant downside.

Broader price action is arguably just consolidation in time... rather than price. It kinda bemuses me I don't see more posting on it.

As for the VIX... it remains indicative of a very comfortable capital market, as even the low teens are usually out of reach. VIX call action is already suggestive that the big money is starting to forget about VIX 20s before mid Feb.

Goodnight from London